Friday, February 29, 2008

Real Estate Economist Gary Watts #57

Bruce Norris and economist Gary Watts of Impact Real Estate continue their conversation from last week. This week they discuss when this current real estate downturn began, what statistic told us we were headed into a downturn, if Southern California is different from the rest of California, what percentage of the market was second home purchases, what has changed in the lending industry, the Federal Reserve and why they waited so long to do anything about the lending troubles, the new rules of being a lender, how certain minority groups stand to be hit hardest and how it happened, Bruce and Gary’s differing opinion on affordability, resets in 2008, lenders stalling on resets, if banks can truly be proactive and what choices they have in dealing with delinquent borrowers, due-on-sale clause, the media misleading the public on foreclosure rates, how the media’s lack of experience and understanding of the topics lead to bad reporting, press and its impact on real estate in an up market, consumers and attention paid to news articles, Orange County foreclosures, what cities are most affected, did builders overbuild in Orange County, how builders make mistakes, state-wide foreclosures and the never-before-seen sales ratio for Southern California, forecasting in 2008, why California wins migration, and how some areas in California are almost ready to cash flow.

Gary Watts has long been recognized as a forecasting expert by the real estate industry. His long-term analysis has also drawn the attention of the media due to his consistent accuracy. His Economic Outlook has been spotlighted in regional newspapers, including the Orange County Register and the Los Angeles Times. He has been seen on the PBS TV program Real Orange, he has been heard on the radio at KNX Money Talk and was featured in Fortune magazine. He holds a degree in economics with advanced studies in psychology from California State University at Sacramento. Gary's economic forecast and lecture notes are among the information pieces most widely circulated by real estate agents in Orange County. Gary's last speaking season drew over 17,000 real estate agents. His talks are also available in DVD and an English or Spanish CD format

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