The Norris Group Team #208

This week on The Norris Group Real Estate Radio Show, Bruce Norris interviews Greg Norris, the property manager and buyer for The Norris Group, and Craig Hill, hard money loan and trust deed investment lead for The Norris Group. Craig, Bruce and Greg discuss some of the inner working of the company, working with a hard money lender, appraisals in the current market, and much more on tis weeks radio show.

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Appraiser and Investor Rick Solis #177

This week Bruce Norris is joined by California real estate investor and appraiser, Rick Solis.

Rick and Bruce talk more about investing from 2001-2007, what was working and what was not, different skill sets that made a big difference, what Rick did in a downturn, Bruce Norris and the auction business, what Rick would have done differently in a boom, how Rick is buying properties now, competing with other investors, bad investors ruining it for the rest of us, and much more.

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Appraiser and Investor Rick Solis #176

This week Bruce Norris is joined by California real estate investor and appraiser, Rick Solis.

Rick has been in the business since he was 20 years old. Rick does most of the appraisals for The Norris Group's hard money loan division and also helps train investors at The Norris Group's REO Boot Camp.

Bruce and Rick discuss the changes in the appraisal industry since Rick started, why he likes working with hard money lenders, the misconception of appraising being easy because of systems like Zillow, cost-basis appraisals, different property features that add value and those that don't, and much more. The full transcription can be found in the archives at thenorrisgroup.com

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Leslie Appleton-Young of CAR #173

This week Bruce Norris is joined by Chief Economist with the California Association of Realtors, Leslie Appleton-Young.

Bruce and Leslie discuss the the history and current situation of the California media real estate price metric, looking back at problems leading up to the crash, strategic defaults, new deed-in-lieu of foreclosure program, distressed sales to regular sales ratios, real estate bulk buys, the state of the construction industry and building, demographics, and unemployment impacts.

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Leslie Appleton-Young of CAR #172

This week Bruce Norris is joined by Chief Economist with the California Association of Realtors, Leslie Appleton-Young.

Bruce and Leslie discuss the current market, price ranges that have stabilized, government intervention, the current real estate market and what to expect his year, and much more.

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Aaron Norris and Diana Barlet #170

This week Bruce Norris is joined by Marketing Director for The Norris Group, Aaron Norris, and Investor Relations E with the Norris Group, Diana Barlet. Bruce, Aaron, and Diana discuss the journey of buying a house in the current market as two solid buyers including why they waited, how long it took to find a house, information on buying an REO, the process and difficulties closing a transaction, and much more.

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Greg Norris of The Norris Group #158

Bruce Norris is joined by Greg Norris, Porject manager at The Norris Group in charge of REO and trustee sale acquisitions. Bruce and Greg discuss some of what The Norris Group is doing, how Greg learned the skills necessary to be successful, and what it takes to be a competitive California real estate investor in the current market.

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Leslie Appleton-Young of CAR #122

Bruce Norris is joined once again by Chief Economist for the California Association of Realtors, Leslie Appleton-Young.

Bruce begins by asking Leslie about the CAR payment protection program. Leslie says that C.A.R. has a housing affordability fund, which was developed around 2002. It is a fundraising arm, run by a group of members, which gets proposals from local associations for various projects. Since the downturn, the committee has decided to do something that has potential to impact the market by putting people into homes. The committee has developed a $1 million dollar program, which can be used to pay a premium on an insurance policy for a qualified first time home buyer who uses a California Realtor.

The criteria for this program includes someone who has not owned a home in 3 years and you have to have been employed for a minimum of four months. The policy does not begin to pay on a job loss situation for six months, and then the policy will pay for $1,500 dollars of the mortgage payment for six months. If there are two buyers then the second buyer will get $750 dollar benefit. The application does not take place until the close of escrow. The buss has been tremendous. Leslie is hoping that this program will be able to help 3,000 home buyers.

Bruce asks Leslie if the funds given from this program need to be paid back and she says no. She says that it is an insurance policy that does not need to be paid back. She is hoping that this insurance policy will encourage 3,000 people will make the choice to buy their first home. Hopefully it gets people off the fence.

Bruce asks Leslie what encourages her most about the current California market. She has seen a tremendous amount of resiliency within the last year and a half. The damage that we have withstood since the beginning of the downturn can be compared to a forest fire; things get damaged, but in time you begin to see the green seedlings come up. Seeing 7,000 people attending the first time home buying fair was very gratifying to her. People are starting to look at homes as a place to live and a long term investment which is very important. The motivations and expectations are changing.

Bruce has studied migration for years, and he is sure that California is losing migration right now, but he believes that when California gains more job stability that we will receive more migration from all states, because we are a very desirable place to be, and our monthly payment will be lower in ratio of earnings here than in other places. Leslie says that it is difficult to predict what will happen to California because of all the socioeconomic and demographic changes going on in society. One of the things that will have to happen is making more livable cities. Technology allows you to live and work anywhere. It has been argued that the younger generation will be more mobile because they will have 8 jobs in their career, rather than just 1 or 2 like the boomers. Location isn’t as relevant because society is becoming so mobile.

Bruce believes that the retiring baby boomers will be attracted to California. They will have the choice to pay a $300 dollar gas bill, so that they do not freeze during the winter, or they can move to California where you can survive without a heater. Climate is huge.

The traditional buyer, which is the person that hires the Realtor that they knew or the person that drives by the for sale sign, has been replaced with the online buyer. Leslie says that 78 percent of home buyers use the internet during their selection process, and most of them say that they found their agent on the internet, but different surveys produce different results. The only explanation that she can come up with for the different results is that people are being exposed to more advertising and different types of advertising, which is why she tells her members that they cannot do only one kind of advertising. Only 20 percent of home buyers have claimed that they use print in their home search, and 75 percent of that 20 percent said that they looked at the weekend supplements for open houses.

Bruce believes that Realtors have to understand that customers are always looking for and up to something new. Leslie says that she knows a lot of Realtors who team up with people of different ages, so that they can appeal to a larger number of people.

Bruce says that there are two factors, shadow inventory and a large pile of notices of default that will affect trustee deeds and more REOs. He believes that inventory levels are giving us a false indicator, and that the REOs are going to greatly affect the market before the end of the summer. Leslie believes that we will see a second wave of foreclosures during the 4th quarter of this year. The notices of default are going to affect the market, there are Alt-A and option ARMs that are typically a five year fix, and there will be a continued loss of jobs. Lenders are saying the inventory is out there but clearly there is a bottleneck.

There are now three times as many foreclosed properties in comparison to normal listings compared to last cycle. That is the one ration that Bruce believes must rectify itself before a normal price environment can return. We have to get through the bulk REOs. The Norris Group used Krunching.com to track trust deeds back to the lender when they could not find the inventory reemerge as a grant deed or a listing, and they discovered that there were many cases like this.

Obama claimed that the government would give $75 billion dollars to loan modifications, and that not one dollar of it will go to investors. This worries Bruce because he fears that Obama may have been speaking about all investors, rather than just speculators.

Bruce believes that many of the problems in the 90’s were solved because of the 203K loan that investors could use, but this loan option has not reopened to investors yet. It allowed investors to buy a fixer upper and include their purchase price plus the repair cost in the loan. Bruce hopes that they will reactivate that loan for investors.

Bruce asked Leslie, “How do realtors view investors?” She replies investors are a very important part of the market. They are one of the forces behind the current market strength. One of the issues that she has heard is that first time buyers are having difficulty competing with investors. In defense of the REO agent, Bruce claimed that investors get offers when they protect the owner occupant from a failure. The inventory will not work for a conventional loan at this time.

Bruce asks Leslie how she feels about the cram downs. She says that CAR has been opposed to cram downs because cram downs increase the cost of financing for every one else. Bruce thinks that is a scary thing to start because it gives bonuses to people who declare bankruptcy. Usually that is something you do not want to do because it prevents you from getting a loan, but in this case it can help you.

Bruce asks Leslie what she believes will cause the market to become healthier. She believes that inventory and foreclosures are the most important factors. The future is unknown because it all depends on how quickly the economy reinvents itself.

Bruce asks Leslie if she thinks our current interest rates will remain low for a significant amount of time. Leslie believes that interest rates will increase significantly in a few years. The price and interest rate combination are an amazing bargain right now.

Leslie Appleton-Young is Vice President and Chief Economist for the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.), a statewide trade organization with members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate.

Mrs. Appleton-Young directs the activities of the Association's Member Information Group. She oversees the analysis of housing market and brokerage industry trends, member communications, and membership development activities. She is also closely involved in the Association's strategic planning efforts and is a well-known speaker in California’s real estate community.

Before joining C.A.R. in 1984, Leslie Appleton-Young was a consultant with Telesis Inc. in Rhode Island. She also spent several years working as a research associate at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and as an instructor at the University of Pennsylvania.

Mrs. Appleton-Young earned a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics from the University of California, Berkeley, and her Masters from the University of Pennsylvania.

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Leslie Appleton-Young of CAR #121

Bruce Norris is joined this week by Chief Economist for the California Association of Realtors, Leslie Appleton-Young.

Bruce starts by asking how many members C.A.R. currently has? In 2009, she estimates there are 160,000. Peak membership was in 2007 when there were 211,000 members. The numbers are better then both originally thought they would be.

Things have really changed and people are doing very different things than they were two years ago. More work is out there for REOs, working with investors, and first-time buyers.

Bruce asked if the membership encouraged by what you were able to say for 2009? Leslie says the market, in terms of transactions, has seen the worst. The market bottomed, in terms of sales, in the fall of 2007. We had over a 25 percent increase in sales in 2008. The problem is that there is a lot of uncertainty right now about everything, but particularly about the economy. That is what is hard to gauge right now. There has been a lot of initiative coming out of Washington that has not yet had a chance to impact on the street. It is easy for an economist to say “jobs are a lagging indicator”, which they are, but this restructuring could go on for a while, and it could get a lot worse.

Leslie says she is able to carry a message that the distressed REOs and short sale component of the market is bottoming, and slightly improving, with respect to prices. Sales have gone up sharply in the regions of the state, such as the Inland Empire, where you have a significant amount of the listing inventory falling into the distressed category, so that housing is extremely affordable. There are parts of the state where homes are selling below replacement cost. I think that is very encouraging, but there is a cloud over the country and the world, because it is uncertain how long this recession will be. That will have an impact, and I do not think anybody knows.

Bruce says that the hardest part about this real estate downturn is you have to consider so many factors that you have never had to contemplate before. The local, national, and global economy comes into play. Leslie says we have political issues, we have environmental issues, we have swine flu, and we have the economic issues that are really difficult. Housing is just one part of it. Clearly, subprime started the ball rolling about 3 years ago. There is no doubt that this is a systemic issue related to risk taking, transparency, fee driven events with no accountability, and so on. In order to rebuild confidence there needs to be some major changes in how these industries are regulated. That is happening in Washington now.

Bruce says typically when you start down the path of regulation there’s a danger of over-regulation. Leslie says that is possible, but there needs to be more regulation now so that people know what they are getting when they make an investment. That is what is really crippling the lending market. Investors do not want to have anything to do with mortgage backed securities, because they do not trust the paper. There’s no way around it because you need this intangible item called confidence and trust, which is not going to come back on its own.

Leslie says she never thought she would never see the statewide media and home price drop 38 percent in one year. Bruce says he agrees. Investors are buying properties right now at prices we have not seen since 1987 because of the REOs. The median price is probably not highly accurate because there is a mixed inventory.

Leslie says that is absolutely true. She debates average versus median with people all the time. The issue is the fact that it is the moderate and low end of the market that disappeared in 2006 and 2007, and the high end was maintaining until September of 2007 when you could not get a jumbo loan. In 2006-07, the market contracted, in terms of transactions, by more than 20 percent during each of those two years, and yet the median home price was at a very high point.: The high end was still going strong, but that all changed in September 2007. One of the themes, in remarks to C.A.R. membership is “leverage your local market knowledge”, because a national, statewide, regional, or county statistic is not going to be enough. It will not be accurate for the decisions that your clients are making with respect to a particular neighborhood.

Bruce talks about a recent survey where the customer was asked, “What will the direction of prices be in 1, 3, 5, or 10 years?” The dominant answer was “I do not know”, and yet they still bought and Bruce was surprised. Leslie says there are a lot of things going for the market right now. The federal government is buying rates down to 4.5 percent, there is an 8,000 first time home buyer tax credit, there is a 10,000 dollar state income tax credit for construction, there is the FHA financing, there is conforming loan financing that is fairly readily available, and you are looking at prices that are half what they were 3 years ago. Bruce says that interest rates are also 2/3 and the affordanility number is way high.

Leslie says if you look at PITI in the last two years, you can see that it has been cut in half. Bruce talks about his 24-year old daughter and purchasing her first house. It is a big thing when you have your first chance to own a home. It’s an FHA purchase, in which she will have $4,000 or $5,000 dollars down, will receive an $8,000 dollar check from the federal government. She previously rented a room for $700 in another area, and her payment on a perfect fixed house is $804. Bruce says most families have two incomes so he doesn’t think there has ever been a time where California real estate has been this affordable.

Leslie says she challenged an audience last week to examine what their assumptions are about price appreciation over 3, 5, and 10 years, and to make sure that was not driving their decision. It was important for them to understand that housing prices come down.

Bruce says that is part of this issue. There were a lot of realtors, investors and home owners that were very accustomed to just owning a house that created an extra $50,000 to $100,000 dollars whenever they wanted it. Leslie says homes won’t be seen as a piggy bank any more.

Leslie challenges everybody to look back at the past 3 or 4 years, and study it, and be engaged in the public policy debate that is going on in Washington. Look back at the post World War II period up until 2002, you can see that housing debt was different. People treated the home ownership process very differently. It was hard to get a mortgage. Foreclosure and getting into trouble was not viewed as an option. That did not happen unless there were extraordinary circumstances. The fact of the matter is there were a significant number of people who refied out of reasonable loans into risky loans. Many of the deals that went on during the boom were cash out, so people were put in harm’s way.

Bruce says important is the velocity of this downturn. Leslie uses a slide from the late 70s that shows it took 5 years for the market to shrink about 60 percent. In the last 80s and early 90s it took 5 years for the market to shrink. This time it has taken 3 years for the market to drop 44%. Prices are typically sticky on the way down because if the market is not good then why would discretionary sellers decide to sell. In the last couple years there has been a lot of nondiscretionary sellers.

Bruce says that the job issue doesn’t look like it will be solved immediately. Leslie says the big question, in regards to the housing market, is the economy. The problem resides within job losses and confidence. The problem is not that people cannot get financing, particularly conforming financing and FHA.

Bruce says in Riverside, 45 percent of the buyers are under water. Then other people are out of work, or under employed. When you add up these pieces you realize that you need the new buyer to emerge, or you need to attract migration to California, and jobs play a part in that. We are going to have a challenge in the next 18 months while we find out who is going to buy all this stuff.

Leslie says she’s been floored by the first time buyer response, and the affordability is clearly the trigger, but there were a significant number of people who were on the sidelines waiting for this to happen, and they timed it right.

Bruce says there is a definite shift to the type of buyer. It’s really geared towards a first time buyer.

Leslie says she thinks most buyers are getting fixed-rate loans. She doesn’t know why anyone wouldn’t get a fixed-rate loan.

One of the things said in a recent survey was that 56 percent of people qualifying said that on a scale of 1 to 10 of difficulty in getting through the financing they had a scale of 9 or 10, over half the people found it pretty tough to get that loan closed.

Leslie says it was a survey that was done in the middle of last year, so it will be interesting to see if the scale changes when we do it again this year. Leslie’s hope would be that the Obama initiative helped that. Another issue with difficulty is not that the funds are not available, but you have got to document everything. You have got to have a very strong FICO score, and you have got to have your W2s. The problem is not that the money is not there, it is that they want to make sure that they are going to get their money back, and who can blame them?

Bruce says you have to set up the next set of loans to be safe, so when there is another mortgage backed security in our future that it is actually as advertised. Leslie says transparency is critical for us to get our market back. She said on many occasions that rapid price appreciation trumps underwriting. She does not think we can count on that any more. It is an incredible risk to take.

Bruce said the projected median price for 2009 was around $250,000 and he wonders if that is where we’ll end up. Leslie says $250,000 is a reasonable number. When CAR calculates a statewide median for the entire year it is recalculated from scratch. It is not the average of monthly median. They include everything that is sold during 2009 into the bucket, and then get the median. What I am seeing in the market today is that the price softness is at the high end. It is not a huge factor in the market right now because that is a small part of the overall sales. I thought it was very interesting in our March data that we saw an increase in the median home price from one month to the next. It is likely that we are bouncing around the bottom in terms of prices. There’s a lot of talk about multiple offers at over asking price.

Join Bruce and Leslie next week as they continue the conversation.

Leslie Appleton-Young is Vice President and Chief Economist for the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.), a statewide trade organization with members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate.

Mrs. Appleton-Young directs the activities of the Association's Member Information Group. She oversees the analysis of housing market and brokerage industry trends, member communications, and membership development activities. She is also closely involved in the Association's strategic planning efforts and is a well-known speaker in California’s real estate community.

Before joining C.A.R. in 1984, Leslie Appleton-Young was a consultant with Telesis Inc. in Rhode Island. She also spent several years working as a research associate at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and as an instructor at the University of Pennsylvania.

Mrs. Appleton-Young earned a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics from the University of California, Berkeley, and her Masters from the University of Pennsylvania.

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Tommy Williams with the National Auctioneers Association #118

Bruce Norris is joined once again by past President and current Chairman of the Board for the National Auctioneers Association and co-founder of Williams and Williams Auctions, Tommy Williams.

Bruce starts by asking if there is a different process in selling real estate and cattle. Tommy says there is a slight difference but he’s hoping the audience will still understand. He says cattle auction goes a little faster and is a little more entertaining.

Auto auctions generate close to 50% of the proceeds for auctions. The end buyers are typically dealers. There are both dealer and public auctions but some are only available to dealers.

July 13-18th is an auction reunion in Kansas and Bruce asks who attends. Tommy says over 1,000 auctioneers will attend and bring families. It is the best and main time of year to attend education for the auction industry. Over 60 seminars will be available.

Bruce asks about Tommy’s family history in the auctions business. Tommy says there was a little family history but he fell into it on his own. Tommy’s son Dean is an attorney and didn’t plan to be in the auction industry. Tommy moved the business from Illinois to Oklahoma and Dean visited while in school and ended up later partnering. Tommy says he has six grandkids and he thinks a few might be interested in the business.

Bruce talks about the model Williams and Williams has chosen and how it is different from other auction houses. Tommy says online auctions are a very viable way to sell items and Williams and Williams does conduct online auctions. However, Tommy says a property will earn 10% more on the lawn then it will bring online or in a ballroom setting. It’s significant and matters. There is more expense in having these types of auctions.

Tommy describes the difference between absolute and seller reserve auctions. Tommy says the absolute auction is by far the best and motivates the buyer to the ultimate level of bidding. It also attracts the most attendance which is key for the best price. Tommy says many can’t stomach absolute so more are sold with reserve.

Tommy says it not impossible for very experienced auctioneers make mistakes. It’s complicated and not as easy it may look. Advertising has definitely changed over the years. The newspaper has dropped in value each and every day and online advertising has gotten more important. The auction companies track the marketing process very carefully to see where most people are seeing the information.

Tommy says when the word “sold” is uttered, in an absolute auction, it is the most binding contract you can enter into. It is different in a seller reserve. Bruce talks about dealing with deposits in real estate now and how difficult closing can become. Tommy says he thinks 10% down should be at stake to make sure the buyers are truly qualified. Tommy says he doesn’t like the current way real estate is sold because of these issues as buyers can tie up your property will no ramifications if they don’t come through.

Tommy describes how the auction business is commissioned. Williams and Williams gets commissioned directly from the seller. Some lenders require, however, a buyer’s premium. Many more auctions are charging buyers but Tommy actually likes charging the seller. He thinks the buyers see the auction in a more positive light and the premium isn’t seen as a tax on their purchase.

Bruce asks about Tommy dealing with lower priced areas. Tommy says there are minimum fees that must be charged. There does become a point where auctions can’t sell a property because it doesn’t cover the fees.

Bruce talks about lenders not foreclosing on properties because there is more owned on the property then it is worth so lenders don’t do anything with it. Tommy says this issue is really serious and most people aren’t hearing about. Tommy says he’s seen some neighborhoods where 80% of the neighborhood is vacant. There’s almost no choice but to tear them down as they become magnets for vandalism, squatters, and drug labs. Bruce says it doesn’t even have to be an old areas and Tommy sounds surprised. Tommy says that’s why these homes have to be given occupants whether they are investors or owner occupants. Empty properties are not good for neighborhoods.

Bruce talks about Orange County and the FDIC leasing space to set up shop to deal with assets. He asks if Tommy has heard of that and if Williams and Williams were involved in the RTC situation. Tommy says they were slightly involved with the RTC but dealing with government is difficult. Tommy had not heard of the offices being rented in Orange County. Tommy is worried the FDIC will warehouse the properties and it will make the problem worse.

Bruce brings up a new term he saw on the Williams and Williams website called “auction referral cooperative.” Tommy says this is a way to establish a network of like-minded auctioneers that refer one another. There’s no financial obligation and they are simply looking for other auctioneers of the same mind and there’s a referral fee involved.

Thank you Tommy as always for joining us on the show. We look forward to seeing you again this year on September 11th, 2009 for I Survived Real Estate 2009. See more on Williams and Williams at Williamsauction.com.

Tommy served as President of the National Auctioneers Association in 2008 and is current Chairman of the Board. Tommy also graciously took part in I Survived Real Estate 2008 last year.

Thomas L. Williams is a graduate of Penn State University (B.S. Animal Science) and the Certified Auctioneers Institute (CAI). Representing the third generation of Williams family auctioneers dating back to the mid-1800s, Williams is also a graduate of the historic Reppert School of Auctioneering. He has over 40 years experience in real estate auctions, land development and real estate investment. He currently serves as President of the National Auctioneers Association.

A founding partner of Williams & Williams, Williams served as president from 1986-2000, and became board chairman in 2001. He also co-founded and served as managing partner of Lowderman & Williams Auctioneers from 1965-85. He has conducted over 10,000 auctions in all 48 of the contiguous United States and Canada, and is an advisor to auctions conducted throughout Western Europe, South Africa, Australia and New Zealand.

An avid cattleman, Williams also owned and operated Bradmar Angus Farms from 1965-85, after which he continued to serve as a herd and genetics consultant for many of the nation's premier Angus cattle breeders.

Williams is a licensed auctioneer and real estate broker in over 20 states, and an active member of the National Association of Realtors.

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Tommy Williams with the National Auctioneers Association #117

Bruce Norris is joined this week by past President and current Chairman of the Board for the National Auctioneers Association and co-founder of Williams and Williams Auctions, Tommy Williams.

Bruce starts the interview by asking what auction companies miss out on when they aren’t members of the National Auctioneers Association. Tommy says non members miss out of networking, best practices, and education which furthers their professional endeavors. April 18th is national auction day and Tommy would like auctioneers to make communities aware of the benefit that auctions bring to the community. Auctions have the huge benefit of establishing market value on a certain day for numerous products and assets. They also might highlight their charity work in the community through charity auctions. Tommy feels the media picks up too much negative information about auctions and doesn’t highlight all the positives.

Bruce says he read that auctions raise as much money for charities that is sold in real estate and Tommy says that is true. Tommy says auctioneers bring a very important piece of expertise to nonprofit organizations.

Bruce asks if Realtors view auctions as competitors or partners and Tommy thinks too many see auctions as competitors. Tommy says there is fear that auctions establish market value and sometimes people don’t want to really know that actual value. The real estate community wants to not take the hit. Bruce says he’s baulked at final bids before and most times he paid for not selling at that time. Tommy says all of us have been in that situation. Usually, the public will tell the truth and auctions are the best barometer for prices and it will also tell you where price trends are going.

Bruce asks if women are getting more involved in auctions. Tommy says this is a growing trend as it used to be a male dominated field. Tommy says 20-30% of classes for auctions are now women.

Bruce asks about legislative issues that are affecting auctions in general. Tommy says that when legislation postpones the sale of assets it usually means there will be net price deterioration. Real estate is very fragile and unattended and vacant homes tend to lose value.

Bruce says Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac postponed auctions for their properties but in April have started back up. Doing this moratorium cost them money. Tommy says their unwillingness to accept market value has cost them millions. The more they postpone, the worse it will get.

Bruce says he read the auction magazine that in the last few years $270 billion worth of assets were sold. Tommy says this is not a record but getting close. There’s been steady growth in the total dollar sold at auction. 2008 saw prices for assets decline so volume went up but prices were down due to devaluation. So in volume, 2007 and 2008 were record setting years.

Bruce talks about trustee sales and how the lack of advertising doesn’t help the cause. Bruce asks if the National Auctioneers Association has any intent to try and get involved in the trustee sale process. Tommy says that was one of his main goals as President was to do away with the traditional foreclosure process. If the home was sold at the trustee sale to an end user it would save the mortgage holder at least $15,000 in transaction fees. This is not including price declines. This would be of huge benefit to the mortgage industry as a new loan with a new end user would immediately take the property.

Bruce talks about current laws and issues of cities hiring people solely to write fines to homes that are considered blight and that are violating codes. Tommy worries that these types of laws only makes lenders not excited to loan which further exacerbates the lending policies we currently face. No one will want to lend in these areas.

Bruce asks Tommy if he’s nervous about a shift in the American perspective. Tommy says he is concerned that capitalism and private enterprise is something that Americans are now wondering if they should be in favor of. Bruce says he’s concerned as well for some of the things that he’s seen and hopes we can solve some of these issues soon. At “I Survived Real Estate 2008” several solutions were presented but none have been implemented. Bruce things banks could save themselves so much time and money by doing so.

Tommy talks about his pre-foreclosure auction concept. Some Realtors are doing something very similar without approval. Tommy says they’ve implemented something very similar in their company and they’ve tried it out with consumers. As soon as a consumer was falling behind, Williams and Williams worked with the consumer to present the property to the public as well as possible. The final offer was presented to the lender. However, the loan servicer is typically the decision maker and is far removed from the actual decision maker. The goal needs to be lenders getting rid of this stuff as soon as possible to get things moving. This particular solutions gets a new person in the home right away.

For more information visit williamsauction.com or thenorrisgroup.com. Join us next week for part two with Tommy Williams.

Tommy served as President of the National Auctioneers Association in 2008 and is current Chairman of the Board. Tommy also graciously took part in I Survived Real Estate 2008 last year.

Thomas L. Williams is a graduate of Penn State University (B.S. Animal Science) and the Certified Auctioneers Institute (CAI). Representing the third generation of Williams family auctioneers dating back to the mid-1800s, Williams is also a graduate of the historic Reppert School of Auctioneering. He has over 40 years experience in real estate auctions, land development and real estate investment. He currently serves as President of the National Auctioneers Association.

A founding partner of Williams & Williams, Williams served as president from 1986-2000, and became board chairman in 2001. He also co-founded and served as managing partner of Lowderman & Williams Auctioneers from 1965-85. He has conducted over 10,000 auctions in all 48 of the contiguous United States and Canada, and is an advisor to auctions conducted throughout Western Europe, South Africa, Australia and New Zealand.

An avid cattleman, Williams also owned and operated Bradmar Angus Farms from 1965-85, after which he continued to serve as a herd and genetics consultant for many of the nation's premier Angus cattle breeders.

Williams is a licensed auctioneer and real estate broker in over 20 states, and an active member of the National Association of Realtors.

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REO Mentor Tony Alvarez #113

Bruce Norris is joined by expert real estate investor, property manager, and mentor, Tony Alvarez.

Bruce starts by asking if teaching will be a new venture for Tony. Tony talks about The Norris Group giving him his first speaking chance several years back and how doing so forced him to think about what he brought to the table as an individual. Tony had to figure out why he was different in the business. Tony talks about how building relationships is so important and how those relationships can build unbelievable business relationships and wealth.

Bruce asks why a Realtor is better off building a relationship with an investor. Tony says many of these REO houses are going into escrow multiple times. Tony has built his relationships by performing. He has never put in an offer to an REO agent he didn’t close if it was accepted. Agents begin to understand he stands for performance. That strong performance gives the agent ammunition for their asset manager and makes his offer stand above the rest.

Tony discusses coming out of bankruptcy and how he started investing in Palmdale. Tony talks about how he gets in the door with REO agents. These REO agents are busy and they can’t stand newbie investors and the amateur mistakes they make. REO agents eventually end up relying and trusting an investor only after they prove they are an asset.

Tony goes over an example of what he had to deal with when starting to work with REOs in the Antelope Valley in the 90s. Tony talks about approaching an REO agent and how he got the door open. One relationship made him millions and he returned the favor when the market changed.

Tony and Bruce discuss trying to make connections with people. Tony says he’s never met an REO agent that was from Mars. They’re people. There’s always a way.

Bruce talks about Tony and why he is so loved. Some people think Tony is the greatest negotiator but Bruce says why he’s so good is because it isn’t the intent. Bruce talks about love and what Tony brings to the table.

Investors have to not only know what is working to make deals in this California real estate market but they also must understand what they bring to the table as individuals. We as individuals must know what we’re good at and why each of us is different so we can use that in our daily lives to impact people around us. Tony put it best: The one who gives the most gets the most.

Tony Alvarez has been a successful Real Estate Investor and Certified General Appraiser in the Southern California area since 1981. Tony has bought, sold and rented hundreds of properties from vacant land to condos, single family residences, and apartments. More recently he is investing in commercial developments in Arizona, Nevada, and Southern California.

As an appraiser Tony worked as a staff appraiser for Great Western and Glendale Federal Bank and is approved by hundreds of Lenders, Insurances Companies as well as Government Agencies.

He has worked for Fanny Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA and the FDIC.
He has an in depth knowledge of the inner workings of Lenders and their REO (foreclosure) departments. Tony’s knowledge of real estate, appraisal, finance, and investing is vast and varied. He brings a unique perspective to the real estate investment community.

Thanks Tony for joining is on the radio show. Best of luck with you training in Los Angeles this weekend. Next week, a very important interview with Joe Magdzriaz from the Appraiser Institute.

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REO Mentor Tony Alvarez #112

Bruce Norris is joined by expert real estate investor and mentor, Tony Alvarez.

Tony got started in 1980 watching the infomercials on the television. He bought all the courses. It quickly led him to appraising. All the courses he had bought didn’t get him to the numbers he needed. The appraisals license really helped him take off. Tony was born in Cuba and his first exposure to real estate at a young age was very positive.

In the 1980s the interest rate was high. Tony started buying little single family home sin Burbank. He expanded in “The Flats” and kept his job as an appraiser. He started working with two gentlemen from New Zealand. These guys opened his eyes to a new world of investing. Tony learned quickly that his preconceived notion on real estate investing had held him back from what was really possible in the business.

Tony goes into detail about what many new investors say and how they fear getting in the market. Tony discusses the specific questions he asks new investors because he finds they typically make the same mistakes and they just don’t know where to start. They haven’t really thought about the details of where they want to invest and say that they just want a deal.

Bruce talks about how many investors are trying to either make up for lost time and/or trying to make up for losses which is not good. Hearing the desperation makes him nervous as many of these investors get led astray. Tony feels the same way. He himself struggled with this issue early in his career.

Tony talks a little about his “Third Element” concept. He goes into fear and how it really controls people and what they do and don’t do. He talks about fear and how it really gets in the way of real accomplishment. More people need to analyze how they make decisions and stop operating under fear.

Tony talks about people making mistakes because they are unwilling to learn from people already in the business and do not invest in education. He talks about his philosophy on education which is very much like Mike Cantu. Tony went to Mike Cantu’s training although he’s been a land lord for years. All it takes is one simple idea that can revolutionize how you do business. Tony talks about how much money he would have saved if he had been more careful with education in the beginning.

Bruce and Tony discuss how this business has changed his life and how he’s set up his properties to pay for his base lifestyle. It’s afforded him to do some interesting things.

It was a little long of an introduction but more is coming next week.


Tony Alvarez has been a successful Real Estate Investor and Certified General Appraiser in the Southern California area since 1981. Tony has bought, sold and rented hundreds of properties from vacant land to condos, single family residences, and apartments. More recently he is investing in commercial developments in Arizona, Nevada, and Southern California.

As an appraiser Tony worked as a staff appraiser for Great Western and Glendale Federal Bank and is approved by hundreds of Lenders, Insurances Companies as well as Government Agencies.


He has worked for Fanny Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA and the FDIC.
He has an in depth knowledge of the inner workings of Lenders and their REO (foreclosure) departments. Tony’s knowledge of real estate, appraisal, finance, and investing is vast and varied. He brings a unique perspective to the real estate investment community.

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Foreclosure Expert Ward Hanigan #111

Bruce Norris is joined once again by California trustee sale and foreclosure expert and educator, Ward Hanigan.

Bruce talks about Ward’s reputation that is so important in this business. Ward talks about why it’s so important to stay on top of current trends and how his students help him do that.

Bruce talks about the foreclosure problem and all the new “solutions” the government is throwing at the issue. Bruce brings up SB1137. Ward says this bill just delayed the inevitable and now they are coming back on the market. Bruce talks about fines being given out by the cities and how lenders are taking additional huge hits by way of code fines. Bruce met with a Southern California city that says they hired four employees that get paid only when they write code violations. He talks about a recent boot camp and a fine that was levied on the house for something silly. He sees fines upwards of $20,000 on some of these lender-owned California properties.

The quantity of foreclosures is making it difficult for lenders to handle it all. Bruce talks about the cities and counties that are now getting money. Ward likes the programs because a fair amount of the money is going towards the first time buyer assistance programs which help us. There’s also an $8,000 tax credit for certain buyers.

Ward’s view on the new Foreclosure Prevention Act won’t do much as there are plenty of investments that it won’t help. Ward talks about a large number of non-owner occupied homes that will be let go from speculators. Bruce asks where those stats come from because when he looks at County Records Research, Bruce finds that around 70% are owner occupied and 100% financed. Ward says some people coming to him say they were able to finance investments 100%.

Bruce talks about how quickly people went from a positive equity position to negative. Bruce asks Ward how he prepared for the downturn. Ward said he lined up lines of credit in 2006 but did not borrow on them. He owned several homes free and clear. He did a little spec building that worked out well at the peak. Now he’s in a great position.

Bruce asks Ward what he tells people who are having start over. Ward tells them to be a survivor and not a victim. They got caught up in the euphoria, don’t blame yourself, pick yourself up and start over. You have to get over it and get started on something new.

Bruce hears every quarter that now is the best time to buy real estate. Ward says as Option ARMs adjust it will only get better. Ward likes to eat every day and he feels the same way about investing. He makes money in all times of markets. It’s about the deal considering the market you in. Trying to time bottom is not important.

Bruce asks Ward how important it is to him to have his basic needs being taken care of automatic pilot. Ward’s “Dingbat Retirement” program has made him very happy. It’s important for him to have his keepers paying him every month. He has retirement section 8 that’s done quite well. Putting himself in this position allows him to make much more calm and wise decisions.

Ward rents to a very unique group of people. Ward rents to retired individuals. Ward learned early on he wanted to rent to those in their last 20 years of life. He wants people with no job and people who were settled. Retirees want peace and quite, individual units away from other people, don’t have to have a garage, no need for a yard, and overall just want something that’s simple to maintain and is cheap. Bruce asks what the age of these homes are and he says they are typically from the 20s.

Bruce asks about neighborhood safety. Ward says that it’s not too important. They want level ground for safety reasons and they, of course, don’t want heavy crime areas.

Bruce asks how Ward advertises his homes and gets the right people there. The inventory he has helps with that. Ward’s average turnover is 17 years. Ward is looking forward to picking up more.

Bruce and Ward talk about Fannie Mae raising their loans to investor back to 10. Bruce talks about the confusion between speculator and true investors. Investors need to be part of the market. We will need more than 10. foreclosureforum.com

Ward Hanigan is a full-time foreclosure specialist and trainer in San Diego County. He brings you over 37 years of real estate experience, with a degree in Economics and a Doctorate in Law. He has worked in California's foreclosure market exclusively since 1982, and as a consequence he has extensive experience finding cash, researching title, handling evictions, rehabbing, reselling, consulting, and is a "one-on-one" trainer and mentor to some of the most successful foreclosure practitioners in the Western United States.

Next week is Tony Alvarez.

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Foreclosure Expert Ward Hanigan #110

Bruce Norris is joined this week by California trustee expert and trustee sale trainer, Ward Hanigan.

Ward talks about training people about trustee sales from different states. He does so to train investors how to specialize in their area. Different states handle foreclosures differently and he makes sure he caters his training to the area they are investing.

Is the foreclosure explosion good or bad? Ward says its good it’s mind boggling. Comparing it to past downturns, there’s nothing like it. Credit is frozen, the stock market is bad, and unemployment is way up, it’s a bad combination. This is definitely the worst downturn he’s seen. Bruce says the speed has been surprising too.

Bruce asks what niches Ward sends people to. Ward says there’s some niches that work and some that don’t. Bruce brings up a sample of a 10 year old house that went to trustee sale that had no equity. Prices have really got hit hard.

Bruce asks Ward why people are losing their homes. Ward apologizes for his abruptness but says he doesn’t really care. He tried to figure it out but the end result is still the same. You can’t change personal situations and it’s whether or not you are going to purchase the house.

Ward says anything negative, including unemployment, frightens the average person. There’s less competition right now. That’s good for investors. Bruce says that many people think the foreclosure business is simple. Ward sees too many people who don’t do their due diligence and are buying seconds. Google Earth photo and Zestimates aren’t real research. No one helps other investors at trustee sales and even if they did, the person probably wouldn’t believe it. It’s a pros game and not to be taken lightly.

Ward talks about trustee sale buyers and how it is typically the only thing they do. It takes a lot of research and you don’t have time to do other things. Bruce says he knows very few trustee sale buyers that do other investments strategies.

Bruce and Ward discuss their first time bidding at a trustee sale and overbidding by $100. Both talk about if you don’t know your information, you better not show up. Ward teaches his students to over analyze the deal so they’re filled with confidence and nothing can rattle them.

Bruce and Ward talk about lenders now lowering the specified bids at auction. Ward says they are doing it so often and frequently he’s worried about competition showing back up. Bruce asks how much warning you get. Ward says hardly any if at all. Lowering the bid at the last minute doesn’t have the desired effect. If they don’t let the investors know, the investor can’t do the research. Some lenders are posting one day in advance.

Bruce and Ward discuss some new terminology they are using at the trustee sales. Drop bid means the bid is going to be dropped. It could also mean the lender can raise it on you, it becomes almost like a reserve auction and the caller is bidding on behalf of the lender. The lender, in this case, is fishing. Specified bid means the purchase price is dropped and it’s in essence an absolute auction. Ward talks about what he does with that information at the beginning of the sale.

Bruce talks about title. In the trustee sale business, you MUST have access to that information. Ward says title companies need the work. Now is the time to work with them and ask for access in exchange for a partnership.

Bruce and Ward talk about how Ward got into the business of foreclosures and trustee sale investing.

Ward says he is getting back to trustee sales now. He says people laugh at him because he still does it but he loves it. He’s putting together funds now to invest more.

Ward joins us again next week for the second interview. You can find out more about Ward Hanigan and Foreclosure Forum at foreclosureforum.com.


Ward Hanigan is a full-time foreclosure specialist and trainer in San Diego County. He brings you over 37 years of real estate experience, with a degree in Economics and a Doctorate in Law. He has worked in California's foreclosure market exclusively since 1982, and as a consequence he has extensive experience finding cash, researching title, handling evictions, rehabbing, reselling, consulting, and is a "one-on-one" trainer and mentor to some of the most successful foreclosure practitioners in the Western United States.


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California Investor Mike Cantu #109

Bruce Norris is joined once again this week by California investor and property manager expert, Mike Cantu.

Bruce asks about how Mike feels about the use of leverage in this market. Mike says leverage when buying at the right price is fine. Finding the long term leverage is the issue. It’s a challenge because banks want fully qualified and documented loans and stated income is out for investors. Bruce thinks this will change because they’ll have no choice but to open up to investors. It getting over the issue of investors being considered the “speculator” and everyone realizes we’re part of the solution.

Bruce asks Mike what his long term rental would look like. Mike goes into details exactly what he looks for in long term holds including structure and neighborhood. Mike and Bruce also talks about paying a little more for property that is premium. Both talk about neighborhoods and why he likes certain types.

Mike goes into a little more detail about renters and what he looks for when considering renting to a consumer. Mike goes over his job description concept. It’s truly unusual for the renters to hear what Mike has as expectations. Mike says a few people get offended by his direct questions but he ends up with some of the lowest turnover in the business.

If he and the renter make it to signing the rental agreement, he hopes that the renter forgets what he looks like because he never has to hear from them and visa versa. He rarely sees many of his tenants because of correct tenant selection.

Mike talks about liking to rent to blue collar workers. He loves tenants that fix things along the way and then sends him a receipt. Better to solve problems as they come up instead of letting them turn into big problems.

Bruce talks about questions Mike asks that are legal on the first meeting. He says humor and personality are important. Mike talks about things you can’t talk about as outlined in the Fair Housing Guidelines. You can’t not rent to people because of moral issues so be careful and understand what you’re getting into.

Bruce asks what the biggest surprise was that a renter ever gave Mike. Mike talks about a few good surprises and some bad experiences.

Bruce asks Mike about Section 8. Mike says he has mixed feelings about Section 8. Mike likes to be a little more independent. He has seen good and bad. The biggest issue comes with inspections. In his experience, houses don’t break themselves. People break houses and inspectors expect you to fix what renters break.

Bruce asks about rents and if he expects them to go down. Mike has seen his rental market get stronger as people move back to his area that had once gone to the high desert but have now foreclosed. He had a few vacancies but once they were fixed they were rented within 30 days. He says he’s even done a round of rent raises this year and no one has moved.

The biggest mistakes are buying the wrong house and overestimating rent. You can’t be way over on rent. Investors have to do their homework on the tenant and accepting a person check for deposit and first months rent is a huge mistake.

Bruce asks about who handles evictions. He’s been very unhappy with services and luckily he doesn’t have very many. He’s seriously thinking about taking them on himself again.

Mike does not use a property manager and he urges people to learn what it is that an investor is about to pay somebody else to do.

Mike talks to Bruce about the time it takes from an REO purchase to rehab to rental. Mike would like people to start doing houses one at a time and not try too many at once.

Mike is teaching his “Rental Properties and Management” seminar live for the first time February 21st in Riverside. This course is being presented by The Norris Group. Visit thenorrisgroup.com for more information. Next week, Ward Hanigan!

Mike Cantu is undoubtedly one of Southern California's best real estate investors and a long-time friend of The Norris Group.

Mike Cantu has been a full time real estate investor for over 25 years. This is round three of a down market for Mike. He runs a buy/sell operation, wholesales, and manages a rental property portfolio.

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California Investor Mike Cantu #108

Bruce Norris is joined this week by expert investor, Mike Cantu.

Bruce starts by asking Mike what he did before real estate. Mike talks about his background in professional skate boarding. Mike moved from being a skate boarder to a very young start in real estate. Bruce says in the 1980s the interest rates were not that great so was curious why Mike liked real estate. Mike Cantu talks about an info commercial that changed his life and how he started.

Bruce asks Mike about his education and why he is such a supporter of education since he’s already so successful in the business.

Mike talks about his long-term plan. He’s really built as a buy and hold guy. Mike talks about his overall strategies and his mentors.

Bruce asks about the difference between a “B” and “C” neighborhoods and how Mike chooses which properties he’s interested in holding. Bruce and Mike talks about how important being able to purchase below market was to his business.

Bruce asks Mike if he thinks 2009 will be the best buy and hold opportunity we’ve ever seen. Mike thinks that this year will be a great year. Prices for houses are very low in some areas and rents are still relatively high.

Bruce asks Mike where he’s buying his properties and how long it’s taken for some of the properties he’s buying to close. They discuss the extraordinary price declines. Mike says he’s still contacting people directly but not as much. He says 2/3 of sellers are still in denial of what’s happened in the market.

Mike and Bruce discuss about carrying paper to have deals make sense. Mike says he did that he did that in the 80s and 90s but not as much recently.

Bruce asks Mike if he had to do something over in 2006 what would it be. Mike says take a two year vacation! It was a lot of work for sometimes little results.

Bruce and Mike talk about different strategies and how it changes the outlook on what real estate is going to be for different investors. Mike has a large portfolio of rentals and he knew prices were going to fall. Mike has a different philosophy. He wasn’t too interested in leveraging them all to the hilt. Mike says he saw leveraging work for some and others it was their downfall.

Mike talks about each of his houses and having a job description for each one. Mike doesn’t plan to touch any of these. Sometimes people feel it’s sometimes unsophisticated but “unlocking equity” has its own risks and Mike says he’s very clear on what his portfolio does. He heard horrible stories of people’s lifetime of work being wiped out by being too risky.

Mike discusses his two piles of houses and his goal for each pile. Bruce asks how he thinks people can get back on their feet if they have lost everything. He says go back to the basics.

Bruce asks about his calmness level over the past few years as the market has tanked. Mike says he planned for this and knew it was coming. He went through it before and was determined not to make the same mistakes. Bruce said he was glad to go through the 90s. Going through the pain makes you learn some important lessons. Going through the 90s for both Mike and Bruce gave them a very different outlook and respect for down markets and they’ve done things very different this year.

Mike is teaching his Rental and Property Management Seminar for the first time in conjunction with The Norris Group coming up February 21st. More information available at thenorrisgroup.com.

Mike Cantu is undoubtedly one of Southern California's best real estate investors and a long-time friend of The Norris Group.

Mike Cantu has been a full time real estate investor for over 25 years. This is round three of a down market for Mike. He runs a buy/sell operation, wholesales, and manages a rental property portfolio.

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Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics #107

Bruce Norris is joined once again this week by Principal and Co-Founder of Beacon Economics, Christopher Thornberg.

Bruce and Christopher continue their conversation about paying the debt we are currently giving our children. Christopher talks about World War II and how quickly we paid the debt back. Christopher doesn’t have a problem with raising money but government has a problem sometimes paying it back.

Bruce brings up that the State of California can’t raise money so how do you fix the issue. Christopher says California’s problem is $40 billion of a $1.8 trillion in economy which is only 3.5%. It’s not that big of a number. California is 18th in the list of states as far as paying taxes. We’re a little above average. We just collect them in strange ways. Instead of taxes on a ton of small things, we have larger taxes for a smaller bunch of things. Christopher says we have the most regressive property tax. There’s a small group of people who pay a larger portion of the taxes. There’s other ways to make California more tax friendly and pay off debt.

Bruce brings up Prop 13. Christopher thinks Proposition 13 is ridiculous. Voters would have to overturn that proposition.

Bruce brings up Citibank and the concept of cramdownsn which they agreed to cooperate with in bankruptcy court. Bruce asks if that’s possible and Christopher said it is. There’s a new president and an administration that’s more left leaning. Certainly some would pursue bankruptcy as a way to do so but it does incur costs above and beyond just losing your home. Other assets will be at risk. Christopher asks if judges will really consider this alternative as some of these people lied on their loan applications. Bruce says we haven’t put much pressure on the people who exaggerated income. Christopher says the FBI came out early and said they would not be pursuing the consumer. He finds it hard to believe a judge would take the same stance if a consumer blatantly lied on their application and then were seeking a cramdown.

Christopher talks about the huge issue of people going in to default after the payments are adjusted through loan modification. Reports suggest 50% go back into default.

Bruce brings up TARP and the term crawl back which is when CEOs have to give back bonuses if the banks restate their earnings. Christopher says they should have to give it back. Christopher says the problems in the market stems from the problem with executives in the financial system because they were grossly compensated for short-term returns. Christopher talks about some of the ways these executives made millions. He brings up a Lehman executive who made $400 million in six years and how he did it. Executives need to have some skin in the game.

Christopher says mortgage backed securities were used to hide risk. Bruce brings up what they used to call these instruments in the 1900s and how they were made illegal. Christopher is not apposed to derivatives, they’re just extremely complex. We just need to understand them more and the motivation for why people use them.

Bruce asks what the next shoe to drop will be in California. Christopher says asset values are now returning to normal. Savings rates are ridiculously low and debt is way up. Americans thought they were rich. Wall Street tricked these people into believing they could retire early. America has to get spending under control. It’s healthy but painful in the short run. Our economy is too reliant on feeding consumers what they want. It’s not we are buying too few cars today; we bought too many the past few years.

Bruce brings up that the consumer spending was a lesser percentage of the GDP in the past as it was in recent history. Christopher expects that to get back in line. Huge trade deficit was also part of this equation. There was a trade deficit and a savings deficit. In two years, there will be more exports, less imports, and less consumer spending and then we’ll have a healthy economy ready for growth. Bruce brings up that China won’t appreciate it much.

Bruce talks about a report Christopher Thornberg wrote called “Waiting to Save” which is about the habits of the younger generation (24-34) and their saving habits. Bruce says this generation will be picking up some tabs that they didn’t even create. Christopher says this generation grew up in a market where you borrow to speculate. People have to learn to live within their means.

Bruce asks about defined benefit plans. Christopher says for the most part they have left the room and only reside in government. He’s afraid these benefits might never happen and we might figure that out in the coming years. Many of these programs have lost much of their value.

Join us next week for a chat with Mike Cantu before we release his Rental and Property management seminar February 21st.

Christopher Thornberg is a founding partner of Beacon Economics. Dr. Thornberg is an expert in the study of regional economies, real estate dynamics, labor markets and business forecasting. He has been involved in a number of special studies measuring the impact of important events on the economy, including the NAFTA treaty, the California power crisis, port security, California water transfer programs and the September 11th terrorist attacks. Prior to launching Beacon he worked with the UCLA Anderson Forecast where he regularly authored the outlooks for California, Los Angeles and the East Bay as well as performing a number of specialized forecasts for regions and industries. Dr. Thornberg lectures on a regular basis at a variety of public and private events, has appeared on CNN, Fox News and CNBC and is widely quoted in the press. He received his Ph.D in Business Economics from The Anderson School and his B.S. in Business Administration from the State University of New York at Buffalo. He specializes in International and Labor Economics. Dr. Thornberg continues to teach in the MBA program at UCLA and previously held a faculty position in the economics department at Clemson University.

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Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics #106

Bruce Norris is joined this week by Founding Partner and Economist with Beacon Economics, Dr. Christopher Thornberg.

Bruce asks what Christopher thinks about the phrase, “Since the Great Depression.” Christopher says it’s a bit of an exaggeration and there are definitely sectors that have been hit hard but it’s not that bad. Some assets are still holding well.

Bruce asks about the benchmark numbers that clue us in on a depression. Christopher says that before World War II, every recession was a depression. The word “recession” was created so there could be talk about economic downturns without alluding to the Great Depression which might cause panic. He says you could categorize a really bad recession as a depression.

Bruce asks about employment and if they’re measuring differently as there are several categories including under employed. Christopher says employment numbers are measured the same and there have always been those other categories. We’re mainly talking about people who want to find employment but can’t.

Bruce asks if Christopher thought he would ever see these big financial corporations fall. He said he did about six months before it happened because they had really leveraged themselves and it was unsustainable. Debt to equity ratios were 80 to 1. It became apparent any turmoil would cause a failure. The thinking was the more leverage, the more return. During bad times, that same principle works the other way; it magnifies losses. Now the government is picking up the pieces.

Bruce talks about the rating systems that we thought were independent and we find out they were getting commissions. Christopher says people who listen to Moody’s and S&P need to understand the system a little more. Many of these assets they were rating were new and didn’t have much history. Their ratings came from modeling so there was not a complete knowledge of risk. Bruce says that’s an issue because people were looking to these companies and they thought they could trust them. Christopher says people have to do their own due diligence. People stopped looking at fundamentals and weren’t doing their homework. When the market was working, people got lax. Bruce and Christopher talk about Bernie Madoff and how he could possibly get away with that for years without getting caught.

Bruce asks why it seems that when our bubble popped it seemingly caused the rest of the world to collapse. Christopher says that the U.S. is definitely the financial guerilla in the world at 25% of the world economy. However, the U.S. was not the only place where abuses of the financial systems were going on. The kind of borrowing going on in Eastern Europe is a perfect example. Some countries are in much worse shape than we are currently.

Bruce asks Christopher if there are ramifications to the U.S. and its reputation because of the fall. Christopher says there won’t be. Our dollar is good by comparison. In the U.S., you know what you’re getting and we have a very diverse and large asset base. U.S. Government debt is considered the best. The talk that everyone was going to Euro was all talk. In 2005 there were some issues but the problem spread to other banks in other countries and the dollar got everything back that it lost in 2005.

Bruce talks about TARP and if Christopher thinks the first half was spent wisely. Christopher said yes. Congress is upset that there is not enough oversight. Christopher says TARP was not meant to force banks to lend money. It was meant to stabilize the banking system. The system is still in horrible shape. There was an enormous increase in asset value and not just in real estate. The delinquencies on all sorts of debt are way up. Banks will possibly lose trillions. The banking system needs to keep going and we have to step in and help the banks recover.

The initial TARP program Christopher did not like. They were going to go in and overpay for assets. They’ve been taking chunks of the money and give it to banks that are too big to fail (Citigroup, Bank of America) and small banks that are healthy that haven’t participated in the debt frenzy to allow them to expand. It allows these banks to pick up other banks as they fail.

Christopher says the TARP money is all borrowing and the government creating Treasury bonds. The government is also facing a huge fiscal deficit so they need t borrow.

Bruce talks about interest rates and its effect on inflation and trillions in deficits. Christopher sees about another two trillion to total 11.5 trillion. It will be 15% of GDP. It’s all relative and it’s not that bad. And they unfortunately have to pick up next week. More about Christopher and Beacon Economics at beaconeconomics.com.

Christopher Thornberg is a founding partner of Beacon Economics. Dr. Thornberg is an expert in the study of regional economies, real estate dynamics, labor markets and business forecasting. He has been involved in a number of special studies measuring the impact of important events on the economy, including the NAFTA treaty, the California power crisis, port security, California water transfer programs and the September 11th terrorist attacks. Prior to launching Beacon he worked with the UCLA Anderson Forecast where he regularly authored the outlooks for California, Los Angeles and the East Bay as well as performing a number of specialized forecasts for regions and industries. Dr. Thornberg lectures on a regular basis at a variety of public and private events, has appeared on CNN, Fox News and CNBC and is widely quoted in the press. He received his Ph.D in Business Economics from The Anderson School and his B.S. in Business Administration from the State University of New York at Buffalo. He specializes in International and Labor Economics. Dr. Thornberg continues to teach in the MBA program at UCLA and previously held a faculty position in the economics department at Clemson University.

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Appraiser and Investor Rick Solis #105

Bruce Norris is joined this week once again by appraiser and investor, Rick Solis.

Bruce and Rick start by talking about market value. Rick says market value is what a ready, willing, able, and knowledgeable buyer is willing to pay for a property. Bruce asks if this definition is being held up with lenders in today’s market. Rick says that lenders are not. Bruce talks about how real estate auctions do not reflect true market value compared to fixed inventory. The majority of the inventory needs fixing and must be sold in a certain time frame.

Rick says the market is very different from the 90s. In the 90s, Rick says that there used to be a box that said “declining market”. If that box was checked, the deal wouldn’t go through. Now, the lenders will do those transactions but lenders require more comparables. It becomes difficult to find similar inventory. The banks will want to see the appraiser adjust for the market. Appraisals used to be good for 6 months. With a declining market, comparables need to be 60 days or less from the day of funding. Lenders want at least 2, preferable 3, comps within 60 days of funding.

Bruce asks how long appraisals are accurate in today’s market. In some areas, Rick says prices continue to drop quickly so not long. Every area is different. Bruce says in the last 60 days, appraisals are becoming more of an issue. Bruce talks about a recent example of an issue with an appraisal on a property with multiple offers. Bruce asks Rick what will happen if lenders don’t change their stance on valuing properties and creating comps that reflect perfect condition.

Bruce heard recently that lenders are considering doing refinances without appraisals because of the price declines which Rick has heard as well. He thinks that’s an interesting way to solve the issue. Rick says they keep throwing whatever they can at the issue. Rick says they did the same type of things during the Great Depression. Bruce talks about similarities with policies from the Great Depression and now.

Bruce asks if before and after pictures on properties are helpful. Rick says videotaping properties before and after would be a great help but if there are too many repairs they may want to see permits. He says to document all multiple offer situations.

Bruce and Rick then start talking about the principle of substitution. Bruce says there’s a short supply of good inventory. There’s a glut of inventory that needs fixing. Bruce feels bad for appraisers who have to fight for real prices and they have to be careful. Banks are only looking at pictures and don’t really understand what’s happening in the area. Rick takes many more pictures than is required to show banks why prices are where they are at.

Bruce asks about arms-length transactions. Bruce asks about what would happen if The Norris Group carried its own paper and created higher comps. He asks if that would be a conflict because of arms-length transaction rules. Rick discusses the potential issues and uses the example of builders.

Bruce asks what percentage of sales has concessions in the current market. Rick says almost 100% of transactions on properties that are on the market for two weeks or more have concessions although it’s not always easy to figure out what those concessions are. Appraisers don’t always know the concessions.

Bruce asks what percentage is allowed for condition in appraisals. Rick says condition can be about 10%. If you adjust more, it can become and issue. It becomes easy with comparables but more difficult if the data isn’t there to support line item adjustments for over 10%.

If the appraisal comes in wrong in the eyes of the bank, you get blacklisted and there’s a possibility of not getting paid. Rick says review appraisals were not as common when the market was going up. Some did but they were way more lenient. Review appraisers typically do a desk review and never go see the property. They are looking at online information. These review appraisers are typically hired independent contractors.

Bruce asks Rick what he would like to see changed. Rick says not having the lender paying for the appraisal would be better. That way there would be no pressure and more honest appraisals could take place.

Next week is Christopher Thornberg with Beacon Economics.

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