Aaron and Bruce Norris of The Norris Group on the Real Estate Radio Show #334

In a reversal this week, Bruce Norris is the special guest again this week. He is interviewed by Aaron Norris, his son and Vice President of the Norris Group. Bruce is the president and founder of the Norris Group and has been a real estate investor since 1980. During this time he has been involved in over 2,000 transactions. As an investor, builder, and/or hard money partner he is best known for his long-term market timing reports including The California Comeback 1997, The California Crash 2006, and he is the moderator for I Survived Real Estate. This is their award-winning show that has produced almost $350,000 since its inception in 2008. Bruce and Aaron discuss California Comeback 2, doubling of prices, the handling of homes now compared to the boom, the decrease in labor and construction, migration, the Norris Group hard money loan program, the upcoming even I Survived Real Estate 2013, and much more on this week's real estate radio show and podcast.

Play Now

Gary Thomas, President Elect of the National Association of Realtors, Joins Bruce Norris on the Real Estate Radio Show #295

Bruce Norris is joined this week by Gary Thomas. Gary Thomas is the broker/owner of Evergreen Realty in Villa Park, California. He has been in the business for more than 35 years and has served the real estate industry in countless roles. Gary is currently the 2012 president elect for the National Association of Realtors, which has been the voice of real estate professionals. Bruce and Gary discuss the benefits of joining the National Association of Realtors, Gary's duties once he becomes the president of NAR, the fiscal cliff, the real estate industry now compared to 2008, the loan process, the QM and QRM, the hedge fund buyers and inventory in Orange County, and much more on this week's real estate radio show and podcast.

In other news, the fifth annual I Survived Real Estate will be meeting on October 19 this year. The Norris Group would like to thank their gold and platinum sponsors for helping to make this event possible. Gary Thomas will be joining the panel at I Survived Real Estate 2012.

Play Now

Mark Palim, Director of Economics for Fannie Mae, Joins Bruce Norris on the Real Estate Radio Show #292

Bruce Norris is joined this week by Mark Palim. Mark is a director in the economic and strategic research group at Fannie Mae. His work focuses on the impacts of trends in the financial services sector on the economy and on Fannie Mae. Dr. Palim has a Ph.D. in economics from George Mason University and a B.A. in international studies from John Hopkins University. He lives in Bethesda, Maryland and will join the panel at I Survived Real Estate. Bruce describes Mark as being in the What’s Next? Business. He has to look in the future and tell people what is likely going to happen next. 
Bruce and Mark discuss the current status of the ten-year Treasury bill, the dislocation created in our economy, the impending fiscal cliff, the real estate market in the last five years, the signs of stability and what is causing them, shadow inventory, the current economic outlook, and much more on this week's real estate radio show and podcast.

In other news, the fifth annual I Survived Real Estate will be meeting on October 19 this year.  The Norris Group would like to thank their gold and platinum sponsors for helping to make this event possible.  Mark Palim will be joining the panel at I Survived Real Estate 2012.   


Play Now

Mike Cantu, Tony Alvarez, and Rick Solis Join Bruce Norris on the Real Estate Radio Show #291

Today on the show are three special guests. Rick Solis is a very successful investor who flies a little bit below the radar. He is an appraiser, buys trust deeds, and buys properties.
Tony Alvarez, who invented the radar, is the REO Mentor and is a very successful buyer and teacher. He works with buying and holding, buying and selling, does wholesaling, and buys currently out of the MLS.
Mike Cantu is a very successful property buyer. He has been a developer, landlord, and trainer. He is specialized in talking to clients on the phone and never meeting a soul from whom he buys houses.
Bruce discusses with them the first time they were inspired to invest in real estate, how their children view real estate, the time they had their first good stretch of real estate, their toughest times in the job, their definition of wealthy, and much more on this week's real estate radio show and podcast. 

In other news, the fifth annual I Survived Real Estate will be meeting on October 19 this year.  The Norris Group would like to thank their gold and platinum sponsors for helping to make this event possible. 


Play Now

I Survived Real Estate 2011 part 7 #254

This week, The Norris Group presents the audio portion from the event I Survived Real Estate 2011. This award-winning event has raised over $250,000 since its inception four years ago thanks to the support of all the sponsors and individuals donors that participate. This year, the event focused on current industry regulation, head-scratching legislation, and the opportunities emerging for savvy real estate professionals from an exciting lineup of experienced experts from multiple industries. The video is available on the website. This week's radio show features all six panelists, who discuss the uncertainty in the lending community, stable employment, underinvestment in the economy, the 203k program that existed back in the 90s, changes that need to be made to HARP and new regulations, what each of the panelists would like to see accomplished in their industry, and much more on this week's real estate radio show and podcast.
Play Now

I Survived Real Estate 2011 part 6 #253

This week, The Norris Group presents the audio portion from the event I Survived Real Estate 2011. This award-winning event has raised over $250,000 since its inception four years ago thanks to the support of all the sponsors and individuals donors that participate. This year, the event focused on current industry regulation, head-scratching legislation, and the opportunities emerging for savvy real estate professionals from an exciting lineup of experienced experts from multiple industries. The video is available on the website. This week's radio show features all six panelists, who discuss the recent Moody's report on QRMs, the loan balance, the federal programs being at the county level, the uncertainty in the lending community right now, and much more on this week's real estate radio show and podcast.

Play Now

I Survived Real Estate 2011 part 5 #252

This week, The Norris Group presents the audio portion from the event I Survived Real Estate 2011. This award-winning event has raised over $250,000 since its inception four years ago thanks to the support of all the sponsors and individuals donors that participate. This year, the event focused on current industry regulation, head-scratching legislation, and the opportunities emerging for savvy real estate professionals from an exciting lineup of experienced experts from multiple industries. The video is available on the website. This week's radio show features Bruce and panelists Doug Duncan, Eric Janszen, Sean O'Toole, Debra Still, Sara Stephens, and Gary Thomas, who discuss the function of the appraisal management company, AMCs, the reasonable customary fee, undue pressure, the need for local market expertise, broker-price opinions, and much more on this week's real estate radio show and podcast.
Play Now

I Survived Real Estate 2011 part 4 #251

This week, The Norris Group presents the audio portion from the event I Survived Real Estate 2011. This award-winning event has raised over $250,000 since its inception four years ago thanks to the support of all the sponsors and individuals donors that participate. This year, the event focused on current industry regulation, head-scratching legislation, and the opportunities emerging for savvy real estate professionals from an exciting lineup of experienced experts from multiple industries. The video is available on the website. This week's radio show features Bruce and panelists Doug Duncan, Eric Janszen, Sean O'Toole, Debra Still, Sara Stephens, and Gary Thomas, who discuss issues with foreclosures and how it will affect taxpayers, the number of people currently delinquent, extensively on the Dodd-Frank Act and where we are now with it, the risk retention rule, reps and warranties and much more on this week's real estate radio show and podcast.
Play Now

I Survived Real Estate 2011 part 3 #250

This week, The Norris Group presents the audio portion from the event I Survived Real Estate 2011. This award-winning event has raised over $250,000 since its inception four years ago thanks to the support of all the sponsors and individuals donors that participate. This year, the event focused on current industry regulation, head-scratching legislation, and the opportunities emerging for savvy real estate professionals from an exciting lineup of experienced experts from multiple industries. The video is available on the website. This week's radio show features Bruce and panelists Doug Dunca, Eric Janszen, and Sean O'Toole, who discuss Eric Janszen's book The Post-Catastrophe Economy, the recent loan portfolio, the debate on the debt ceiling, output gaps, public/private partnerships to create an infrastructure and much more on this week's real estate radio show and podcast.

Play Now

I Survived Real Estate 2011 part 2 #249

This week, The Norris Group presents the audio portion from the event I Survived Real Estate 2011. This award-winning event has raised over $250,000 since its inception four years ago thanks to the support of all the sponsors and individuals donors that participate. This year, the event focused on current industry regulation, head-scratching legislation, and the opportunities emerging for savvy real estate professionals from an exciting lineup of experienced experts from multiple industries. The video is available on the website. This week's radio show features Bruce and panelists Doug Dunca, Eric Janszen, and Sean O'Toole, who discuss the meaning of homeownership, foreclosure rates, investor financing, current lending policies on investors, the recent study put together by Cal Poly Pomona and Michael Carney, the primary risk of a Greek default, and much more on this week's real estate radio show and podcast.

Play Now

Marsha Norris #212

Marsha Norris lost her brave battle with cancer on January 22nd. For the next two weeks, we honor her memory by re-running two more shows she recorded leading up to our I Survived Real Estate events that raised awareness and money for breast cancer.

Thank You for the notes, flowers, and prayers during this difficult time. We truly appreciate your concern and all the support over the years. We feel the love. We will deeply miss Marsha (Mom) but will forever cherish the wonderful memories.

Play Now

Marsha Norris #211

Marsha Norris lost her brave battle with cancer on January 22nd. For the next two weeks, we honor her memory by re-running two more shows she recorded leading up to our I Survived Real Estate events that raised awareness and money for breast cancer.

Thank You for the notes, flowers, and prayers during this difficult time. We truly appreciate your concern and all the support over the years. We feel the love. We will deeply miss Marsha (Mom) but will forever cherish the wonderful memories.

Play Now

I Survived Real Estate 2009 part 3 #143

This week The Norris Group Real Estate Radio Show presents Part of I Survived Real Estate 2009.

This week The Norris Group Real Estate Radio Show and Podcast presents Part 4 of I Survived Real Estate 2009. This segment features Tommy Williams from Williams and Williams and the National Auctioneer Association as well as Joseph Magdziarz from the Appraisal Institute.

Play Now

I Survived Real Estate 2009 part 2 #142

This week The Norris Group Real Estate Radio Show presents Part 3 of I Survived Real Estate 2009.

This week The Norris Group Real Estate Radio Show and Podcast presents Part 3 of I Survived Real Estate 2009. This segment features John Young from Young Homes and the California Builders Industry Association, Pat Combs from Coldwell Banker and the National Association of Realtors, and Tommy Williams from Williams and Williams and the National Auctioneer Association. The group continues their discussion on legislation and regulation as related to their specific industries.

Play Now

Pat Combs with the National Association of Realtors #131

This week Bruce is joined by Pat Vredevoogd Combs. Pat is a Realtor from Grand Rapids, Michigan. She is the immediate past president of the National Association of Realtors. NAR is America’s largest professional association representing more than 1.3 million members involved in all aspects of residential and commercial industries.

In 2005-2006, Bruce had to change his hairstylist every few months because they would quit hairstyling and they would get into real estate. It seemed like everyone was getting a real estate license. Bruce asks Pat if this was true. Pat says that there were many people getting their license in California, Florida, and Nevada, but not in places like Michigan. The state you live in can greatly affect your perspective on real estate. In Michigan, real estate was in a down market while California and Florida were still booming.

Bruce asks if people are confused by the messages of profit being sent out by the media. When you listen to national news it seems like all markets are the same, and when Realtors work with buyers, the buyers expect this to be true. In 2006, the NAR released a lot of positive information, but many of its members were going through tough times. The NAR had to be very careful about which ads they used in different areas, because each market is different. They were once able to send the same general message to every market, but within the last few years they have had to do a better job of looking at each market individually in order to decide which ads were appropriate.

In 2009, there are multiple states going through a disastrous real estate market, and they are in a severe recession. Bruce asks if there is a tendency for new legislation to be made, in these kinds of economic scenarios, in order to fix the problem. Pat says that this does occur on a national basis. People once said, “If you can breathe, you can get a loan.” Right now, this is not the case. There are some good buyers who are having difficulty getting loans today.

Bruce asks if Pat was surprised when lenders decided that these new strict lending policies were okay. Pat claims that she was surprised by this. NAR partnered with The Center for Responsible Lending to do research on this subject and when they looked at the results of their research they realized that these lending policies were going to cause trouble. Pat testified before Congress in 2006 and 2007, claiming that these policies were going to cause trouble.

There are many groups within real estate who do not look at other real estate groups as partners. Bruce and Pat think that if these groups would work together that these groups could get much more done for the industry. The NAR meets with companies like Mortgage Bankers Association, Habitat for Humanity, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac. Bruce asks Pat if investors like himself might have something to contribute to these meetings. The Rental Property Association and other major national associations do come together to contribute to these meetings.

NAR just celebrated its 100th birthday, it has 1.3 million members around the United States, it has a staff of lobbyists in Washington, D.C., and it also has relationships with 64 countries. These factors contribute to their ability to be heard in Congress.
Bruce thinks that the input NAR gives in congress is vital, because he doubts that many of the Congress members have the time to read through the bills they sign. NAR’s lobbyists are very well respected and well rated. NAR also has a great grassroots groups. There are Realtors involved in politics and they have the ability to influence members in Congress.

Bruce asks what NAR’s lobbyists do on a regular basis. NAR’s lobbyist help educate Congress. They can take a 400 page document and give Congress members a general idea of what it means and what effect it will have on the U.S. They really help educate.

Hastily created legislation can have unintended consequences. Bruce asks how the Home Valuation Code of Conduct has affected the market. Pat does not think that this legislation has really impacted the market yet. What Realtors are discovering is that all appraisals must go through a new agency that has been formed and this agency is using appraisers who are more desperate. These appraisers are doing appraisals for areas that they are not familiar with, and they are doing these jobs for very low pay.

Pat understands that this agency was formed because people wanted impartial appraisals, but you cannot do an impartial appraisal when you do not know the market. Pat has had trouble completing transactions because these foreign appraisers would appraise her homes at low prices while the sale was being processed. Bruce runs into this kind of problem every time he tries to sell a house. The appraisers are falsely comparing the value of his well fixed homes to vacant REOs. Bruce and Pat think that it would be best if HVCC was annulled. NAR members are meeting with people in Washington and New York to get this legislation changed.

Bruce asks how important the first time home buyer tax credit has been for business. Pat thinks that this tax credit has been fabulous, and she wishes that this tax credit was given to all buyers. In Michigan, first time buyers who were not previously interested in buying real estate are now occupying homes because of this tax credit. A lot of inventory is getting taken off the inventory. Now that those homes are being sold, the sellers are going to able to move themselves up in the market place. Pat also thinks that it would be good if the dollar amount of the tax credit was increased. This tax credit is different from the subprime deals, because people have to qualify for this credit and they must have a down payment. They can now use the $8,000 dollar credit as part of their closing costs, but it is troublesome to go through that process, and Pat has not seen many people doing that.

FHA is becoming more influential in the financing market. Bruce asks Pat if there are any changes she would like to see in that program. NAR is currently working to push the FHA’s maximum price limit increased. For years, no one in California could get an FHA loan because California’s real estate was too expensive. Pat and Bruce are using FHA on almost all of their sales. Bruce dislikes the program that restricts investors from quickly fixing houses so that they can be quickly resold. This program does not allow sellers to use FHA loans for 90 days after the house has been bought. There is a loan for owner occupants right now called the 203K. The 203K helps people buy homes that need fixing. Bruce asks if Pat has seen many of these loans take place in her market. Pat says that she has not. Right now, lenders do not seem to be even suggesting it.

Bruce asks Pat if she is afraid that Congress might try to take tax dollars from interest reductions. Pat is opposed to changing mortgage interest deductions. Every time Congress creates legislation to create money for one thing, they end up taking money away from something else. She knows that the current administration is interested in doing this, but she thinks that it would be a mistake to do that. This market needs as much help as it can get, and doing this might have a devastating effect on markets that are improving.

Pat is a native of Grand Rapids, Michigan and is a REALTOR with Coldwell Banker AJS Schmidt Realty. Pat was a broker/part-owner of AJS Realty before selling in 2006 to Coldwell Banker Schmidt.

Pat is married to team member Guy Combs and is the proud mother and step-mom to six great kids and grandmother of Ethan, Anna, Claire, Violet and Elsa.

Her career in Real Estate began in 1971 as an agent – then on to getting her Broker’s license and many higher education designations which are: ABR (Accredited Buyer’s Agent), CRS (Certified Residential Specialist), E-Pro, GRI (Graduate Real Estate Institute), PMN (Performance Management Network – Woman’s Council).

Many of Pat’s years were busy serving not only her clients but also her community and her professional associations. Here are a few things of note: 2007 President of the National Association of REALTORS, 2005 – 2008 Officer of the National Association of REALTORS, 2002 – REALTOR of the Year for the State of Michigan, 2002 – Chairman of the Michigan Real Estate Commission, 1997 – Regional Vice President – National Association of REALTORS, 1995 – President of the Michigan Association of REALTORS, 1990 – President of the Grand Rapids Association of REALTORS, and 1986 – President of the Michigan Woman’s Council of REALTORS,

For Many Years over the past 35+ years: Board Member of Baxter Community Center, Board Member of West Michigan Fair Housing Center, 4-H Leader (Horse Program), Cascade Township 4th of July Parade Float Contest Sponsor, Board Member of Cascade Township Foundation, Major Gift Chair for WGVU Public TV Auction, Guest on WGVU “Ask the Realtor” TV Program, and Testified before the US Congress and the US Senate.

Play now

Marsha Norris #129

This weekend is the official launch of I Survived Real Estate 2009. We launch the event with special guest, 14 year breast cancer survivor, and inspiration behind the event, Marsha Norris. Aaron Norris also joins the show as organizer of the event.

Marsha discovered that she had breast cancer in 1995. Bruce asks Marsha what emotions she felt when she discovered her cancer. Marsha said that she felt fear, anxiety, and terror. Fortunately, Marsha is not the kind of person who dwells on negative thoughts for very long, so she quickly began to look for help. Bruce and Marsha went to four doctors before they found one that they were comfortable with. Marsha did a lot of personal research and reading on cancer as well. When Bruce and Marsha went to UCLA they felt like they were being treated as people rather than a disease.

Bruce asks Marsha how important she thinks her attitude has been in regards to her ability to survive cancer. Marsha thinks that her attitude has been crucial, because negativity immobilizes you. She had to be her own cheerleader. She kept thinking, “What can I do for myself, and where can I find people that will help me?”

Marsha thinks that it is important to believe in the choices you have made for yourself, rather than just relying on your doctor. Marsha believes in working with traditional medicine as well as complementary therapies. You have to be comfortable with what is happening and not just let the doctors take control of everything. You have to believe in what will work for you.

Bruce asks Marsha if most people who encounter cancer for the first time are very independent. Marsha thinks that most people are so fearful that they just hand their life over to their doctors. Sometimes Bruce and Marsha go to different doctors and they assume that certain things have already occurred. For example, some doctors have automatically assumed that Marsha has done the lymph node test, and when they discovered that Marsha did not do that they were amazed. Now Marsha is being told that in the future doctors will no longer even use the lymph node test, so many of the things that Marsha was stubborn about turned out to be unnecessary. Her instincts have proven to be correct over time.

Marsha is taking a new treatment now. Cancer takes people on an emotional roller coaster. Coming home from Marsha’s first surgery they went to Claim Jumper for a gigantic lunch. At that point, Bruce was feeling confident that they could handle what they were up against. Two days later, they were told that Marsha needed another surgery. That swing from feeling happy and relieved to feeling downhearted is very tough, and they have dealt with these types of disappointments for 14 years. It can be very emotionally draining.

There has been a new word that has emerged in Marsha’s place for treatment, and it is “remission.” In the past, remission has never been a word that anyone used. It is exciting to hear people say that they are in remission and it is important for people to have hope. Marsha has never taken traditional chemotherapy but she has spoken to people who are in chemotherapy. These people are completely drained, sick, and depressed. Marsha remembers one man who said, “I have nothing left to loose. I have lost my job, my home, and now there is nothing left other than my life.” Every attempt that Marsha has made to get treatment was an attempt to continue living, but many other people suffering from Marsha’s situation are getting treatment to prevent death. She has a much more hopeful outlook.

When Marsha started taking this new treatment she lost some hair, so she decided to shave her hair and get wigs. She took her friend Diana, and Diana almost started crying, but Marsha told Diana, “Don’t do that. I’m choosing to do this.” She told Bruce, “Its just hair, it grows back.” Marsha and Aaron have made fun of her wigs. Aaron named each of her wigs and given each one a personality based on their look.

When people hear that Marsha has cancer, they expect a certain demeanor that they do not receive. They look at her and say, “Well, you do not look sick.” This makes Marsha feel very good. Every day Marsha wakes up and thanks God for giving her another day, and for the little things that she is able to do again now that her right hand is no longer broken.

When Marsha came to the radio show, someone from the radio show approached her and told her that they know someone who has cancer. Bruce asked Marsha how often people approach her and ask her for help with a friend or relative with cancer. This has happened several times with her. She has been able to give advice to people using chemotherapy, and she has offered her time to talk to them should they need it.

Bruce asked Marsha if it is emotionally draining for her to talk to people who need help. Marsha said that it used to be but now she is glad to offer help to anyone who needs it.

Marsha currently has a couple oncologists and ten other physicians/therapists who help her. Bruce asks Marsha how important it is for her to have many different places for her to get help. Marsha thinks that it is very important because you need to treat cancer with multiple tactics. It is not all about medication; you also need nutritional support, massage therapy, acupuncture, and chiropractic help to relieve pain.

It can be overwhelming to watch Marsha’s daily schedule. She spends a large portion of her days taking care of her cancer needs, yet she continues to have a positive outlook. It can get exhausting taking supplements and having to eat a certain way all the time, but it becomes a lifestyle after a while. Every once and a while she has to get a burger.

There have been times where Marsha’s kids will ask if she still has cancer, because they cannot tell based on her attitude and the way she lives. If she feels good and acts good then everyone else feels better as well. Aaron is very proud of the way his mother is handling her cancer. Her strength, persistence, and stubbornness amazes him. There have been many times in which Bruce’s employees have cried in his office because of Marsha’s difficulties and that support is what makes the “I Survived Real Estate” event so important to Aaron. Every event they go to there are always people sending flowers and asking how Marsha is doing.

Bruce asks Aaron how people reacted to the event last year. Aaron said that many people were confused. He gets yelled at by people every month because people are expecting him to do advertising on the radio show. It was difficult to explain to people that The Norris Group and its partners were paying for the event so all TNG needed was for people to donate to or join the walk. This year the panel lineup is a real dream team and Aaron has been surprised by who decided to sign up.

Early in Bruce and Marsha’s marriage, Marsha’s father had lung cancer and he did not have a hopeful attitude. Bruce asked Marsha if her father’s reaction to cancer inspired her to act differently. Marsha said that when she saw him give up, she thought “I can’t believe that he is giving up so easily when he still has two sons to raise. If that ever happens to me, I will not give up like that.”

Marsha has learned a lot about herself through her experiences. She has discovered that she has a lot of inner strength. She does not let doctors push her around. She allows them to give her their opinion but always questions their judgment. Marsha enjoys her current oncologist because she is supportive, and she supports Marsha’s decisions.

Marsha has discovered who her real friends are through her experiences. She has had a lot of support from her family, and she has had a few friends who have not stuck around.

Marsha hopes that her family sees that they have the ability to withstand these difficulties as well.

If someone was recently diagnosed with cancer, the first thing that Marsha would tell them to do would be to relax, and start getting educated on their problems. Research your doctors and choose them wisely. Marsha also insists that people take the non-toxic treatments first, and use the toxic treatments as the last resort. Marsha takes baths with epson salt which helps take the toxins out of your body. There was a time where she was around multiple cancer patients and a doctor, and she suggested that the other patients try epson salt, but the doctor wasn’t supportive of her idea. Two weeks later, one of the ladies that she talked to about epson salt approached her and told her that she was feeling much better.

The event occurring on September 11 will be a formal event. For men, a tux is preferred, but not required. You can get involved by going to the website isurvived2009.com
You can donate to the walk or join the walk and raise the money to attend live for no cost to you while seats remain. If you raise 2000 dollars you can be a gold sponsor, and for 5000 you can be a platinum sponsor. Each seat is valued at $200 dollars so we ask everyone to donate or raise $200. That $200 must be made to our “I Survived Real Estate Walking Team” to count as sponsorship. Visit isurvived2009.com for more information.

Marsha Norris has four children, seven grandchildren, and has been married to Bruce Norris for 39 years. Marsha is a trained massage therapist and loves reading on holistic medicine, different massage techniques, and numerous other topics. She enjoys traveling and looks forward to seeing Alaska this summer.

Play Now

I Survived Real Estate 2008 part 9 #91

Part nine of “I Survived Real Estate 2008” is the final portion of the radio segments for the event. The show picks up with a bit of a rerun from last week. All new discussions around minute 14.

We pick up where Tommy Williams chimes in and says there are other states that had the same inventory for half the price of the states that got overheated. Overheated states have to come back to “normal.”

Bruce says he agrees but says that’s part of the reason he loves California real estate. California wins so many tie breakers. There’s exciting volatility you don’t get in other states.

Bruce talks about Fannie and Freddie and if we’ll see them stay in private ownership.

Christopher Thornberg says they are clearly insolvent and he doesn’t know what they will do or how they will react. Typically they overact.

Bruce asks the panel if the government writing these big checks will increase inflation and if we’ll see much different interest rates three years from now.

Christopher describes the two ways our government pays the bills; issue debt or printing money. Christopher says our government assumes that investors have confidence in the system. If investors see the bottom drop out of the public bond market and the treasuries go crazy then there’s a problem but he says we’re far from that. Christopher says interest rates are now adjusting for the increased risk. Eventually they’ll come down when this crisis passes.

Bruce talks about when he became an investor he refinanced his house at 17% interest. Many people were telling him at the time he’d never see single digit interest rates again. Bruce says interest rates can be very high as long as the income to median price ratio makes sense. There could still be a healthy market.

Rick talks about market psychology and how nervous buyers and lenders are at the moment.

Bruce talks about the velocity of price drops in the market being historical and some are unaware. 35-50% price declines are shocking.

Joel discusses a Zillow study where 7 out of 10 people thought their home was still appreciating. Christopher Thornberg calls that homo-illucination and what it stands for.

Bruce asks Phil Tirone if lenders are skewing too conservative and not making loans at all. The automated underwriting was such a blessing at the time because it made things ease and now it’s making it worse. Phil describes people putting 50% down and he still can’t get financing because his client’s credit score is low.

Christopher says those automated systems were a disaster and that lenders knew how to manipulate the systems. Philip says these systems did help cause the problem. Christopher says once the price gets down low everyone will qualify.

Bruce touches on affordability. Bruce describes affordability and what it solves and does not solve. He describes past cycles and what he looks for in a turned around market. Bruce looks for migration coming back as the true indicator as the decline for foreclosures. We’ve gone from 16 months of inventory to under 7 months but sees it as a false indicator. Those that didn’t have to sell left the market.

Joel Singer disagrees. He’s assuming 85% of homes are owner occupied. He doesn’t see too many rentals occurring for those pulling out of the market since they don’t have to sell, especially in coastal regions. Inland Empire is where most of the vacancies are occurring. He agrees that people who don’t have to sell don’t and pull out of the market. He said it was like this in the 90s. Affordability tells you about first time buyers but not the trade up market. We still have to consider unemployment rate. Affordability is not perfect but decent indicator of first time buyers. Psychology is important too.

Joel says 50% more sales are occurring on top of tight lending so things could be changing. He thinks more investors are going to be needed for a certain period of time. He thinks a few of Bruce’s ideas could be sold but others could not. He does think from a policy point of view that affordability going up is a good thing.

The vacancy rate is getting close to the national average but it’s always different here in California. Joel thinks the loan assumptions idea won’t work. 90 day seasoning period for investors should be able to work with some sort of certification that the repairs have been done.

Bruce asks Christopher which chart he’s looking at for an end of the downturn. He says when prices stop dropping. Joel says that seasonally prices are sure to fall in the coming months as they typically do. Christopher rephrases his original comment to seasonally adjusted.

Joel feels prices in some areas are already improving and multiple bidding is occurring. Joel feels a bottom floor is starting to appear in some areas. The overall economy will be important in deciding the outcome as will the outcome for Fannie and Freddie.

Christopher says we have way too many 4,000 square foot houses. He also brings up unemployment so there are still other things to consider before he calls it over.

Joel reminds the audience that markets are local and that San Bernardino and South Bay are very different. He says most people will miss the bottom.

Bruce beings up the list of properties the Norris Group purchased. Homes The Norris Group purchased for $110k are now being bought for $85k. These properties often also have multiple bids but our offers are stronger. Bruce is worried about twice as many trustees deeds then sales in Riverside County. That ratio is much worse then last time.

Joel says statewide though it’s different and there’s still more sales than foreclosures. He’s actually surprised. If you go up to 400,000 foreclosures then there’s a much more serious problem.

Philip says there are portfolio lenders that are stepping up with non-owner occupied with low 7%-high 6%, 30% down, with no limit for investors. So there is financing out there.

Bruce thanks the panel and the evening ends. See also the video on YouTube or Google video.

The following partners and sponsors without whom the event would not have been possible:

Platinum Sponsors:
The San Diego Creative Investors Association (SDCIA): sdcia.com
Investors Workshops: investorsworkshops.com
Frye Wiles: fryewiles.com
Proxibid: proxibid.com
White House Catering: whcatering.com
MVT Productions: mvtpro.com
Pechanga Resort and Casino: pechanga.com
The Denver Nuggets: nba.com nuggets
The Chicago Bulls: nba.com bulls
The Cleveland Cavaliers: nba.com cavaliers

Gold Sponsors:
7 Steps to a 720 Credit Score and Philip X. Tirone - 7stepsto720.com
Chicago Title - ctic.com
Elite Auctions - sellwithauction.com
Foreclosure Trackers - foreclosuretrackers.com
Investors Resource Center of America LA and Steve and Robyn Love - irca-losangeles.com
Las Brisas Escrow - lasbrisasescrow.com
National Club of Real Estate Investors and Sam Saddat - ncrei.com
Northern California Real Estate Investors Association (Norcalreia) and David Granzella - norcalreia.com
North San Diego Real Estate Investors and Linda Wessels - nsdrei.org
RealtyTrac - realtytrac.com
RE Ventures and Michael Pines - reventuresrealty.com
Real Estate Investors Club of Los Angeles and Phyllis Rockower - realestateclubla.com
Real Wealth Investor and Scott Whaley - realwealthinvestor.com
Saddleback Valley Communities - svc4.com
Silverstar Finance and Janet French - silverstarfinance.com
Sunset Hills Memorial Park and Mortuary - sunsethills.cc
The Mission Inn - missioninn.com
The Mortgage Equity Group - http: themeg.net
The Naked Real Estate Investor Club - Rosie Nieto - nakedrealestateinvestorsclub.com
The Short Sale Processor and Nick Manfredi - theshortsaleprocessor.com
Virtual Real Estate Tour and Layla Tusko - 1wealthcreation.com
Wholesale Capital Corporation - wccmtg.com

Play Now

I Survived Real Estate 2008 part 8 #90

Part eight of “I Survived Real Estate 2008” picks up with Rick Sharga of RealtyTrac talking about a discussion he had with a man who handled the REO assets at a credit union. The man was wondering if RealtyTrac could supply him a list of who owned the firsts on a list properties. Rick was surprised since he thought that would have been information that was gathered. The man said they did not have the information as little information was gathered on the first mortgage and little was taken on the homebuyer.

Rick says this downturn is different from others in that other downturns were preceded by an economic downturn. RealtyTrac feels this kicked in first quarter of 2006. Unemployment was historically low as were interest rates. Rick sees we saw capitalism at its worst. We saw Realtors and mortgage brokers getting greedy along with Wall Street. Tools were being used in ways they never should have been used. The wheels this time all came off at once.

Bruce says there are a lot of new people in business. The greatest bull run got more and more people in and they rationalized that it would continue. Bruce talks about the discussions people make in a boom market and why it’s unwinding. Bruce also mentions a bet with a friend he made where he thought oil prices would be at $50 before they hit $150. This was when the price was $142.

Bruce asks Richard Lambros how the building industry looks at this market and the possibility of building. Richard talks about the builder journey through the last few years. This is a housing crisis combined with a credit crisis. Richard brings up how most people don’t like the solutions being presented but feels the solutions may be less painful then letting it correct on its own. He says builders are really in a position of waiting and the core issues are still an issue. California homes are very expensive to create and the government doesn’t seem to realize that.

Bruce asks Richard if when building resumes if the size of the homes will decline. Richard says the average went from 2,200 to 2,500 square feet and builders were looking at demand.

Bruce says he thinks this is an unusual event and this might never been happen again in our lifetime. Prices might skew so low that it will eventually attract mass migration. Once our home prices dip below those of neighboring states, we win the climate and coast battle and win migration. Once we get the migration, building will really be up and running again.

Tommy chimes in and says there are other states that had the same inventory for half the price of the states that got overheated. Overheated states have to come back to “normal.”

Bruce says he agrees but says that’s part of the reason he loves California real estate. California wins so many tie breakers. There’s exciting volatility you don’t get in other states.

Bruce talks about Fannie and Freddie and if we’ll see them stay in private ownership.

Christopher Thornberg says they are clearly insolvent and he doesn’t know what they will do or how they will react. Typically they overact.

Bruce asks the panel if the government writing these big checks will increase inflation and if we’ll see much different interest rates three years from now.

Christopher describes the two ways our government pays the bills; issue debt or printing money. Christopher says our government assumes that investors have confidence in the system. If investors see the bottom drop out of the public bond market and the treasuries go crazy then there’s a problem but he says we’re far from that. Christopher says interest rates are now adjusting for the increased risk. Eventually they’ll come down when this crisis passes.

Bruce talks about when he became an investor he refinanced his house at 17% interest. Many people were telling him at the time he’d never see single digit interest rates again. Bruce says interest rates can be very high as long as the income to median price ratio makes sense. There could still be a healthy market.

Rick talks about market psychology and how nervous buyers and lenders are at the moment.

Bruce talks about the velocity of price drops in the market being historical and some are unaware. 35-50% price declines are shocking.

Joel discusses a Zillow study where 7 out of 10 people thought their home was still appreciating. Christopher Thornberg calls that homo-illucination and what it stands for.

Bruce asks Phil Tirone if lenders are skewing too conservative and not making loans at all. The automated underwriting was such a blessing at the time because it made things ease and now it’s making it worse. Phil describes people putting 50% down and he still can’t get financing because his client’s credit score is low.

Christopher says those automated systems were a disaster and that lenders knew how to manipulate the systems. Philip says these systems did help cause the problem. Christopher says once the price gets down low everyone will qualify.

Bruce touches on affordability. Bruce describes affordability and what it solves and does not solve. He describes past cycles and what he looks for in a turned around market.
More in the last and final show. See also the video on YouTube or Google video.

The following partners and sponsors without whom the event would not have been possible:

Platinum Sponsors:
The San Diego Creative Investors Association (SDCIA): sdcia.com
Investors Workshops: investorsworkshops.com
Frye Wiles: fryewiles.com
Proxibid: proxibid.com
White House Catering: whcatering.com
MVT Productions: mvtpro.com
Pechanga Resort and Casino: pechanga.com
The Denver Nuggets: nba.com nuggets
The Chicago Bulls: nba.com bulls
The Cleveland Cavaliers: nba.com cavaliers

Gold Sponsors:
7 Steps to a 720 Credit Score and Philip X. Tirone - 7stepsto720.com
Chicago Title - ctic.com
Elite Auctions - sellwithauction.com
Foreclosure Trackers - foreclosuretrackers.com
Investors Resource Center of America LA and Steve and Robyn Love - irca-losangeles.com
Las Brisas Escrow - lasbrisasescrow.com
National Club of Real Estate Investors and Sam Saddat - ncrei.com
Northern California Real Estate Investors Association (Norcalreia) and David Granzella - norcalreia.com
North San Diego Real Estate Investors and Linda Wessels - nsdrei.org
RealtyTrac - realtytrac.com
RE Ventures and Michael Pines - reventuresrealty.com
Real Estate Investors Club of Los Angeles and Phyllis Rockower - realestateclubla.com
Real Wealth Investor and Scott Whaley - realwealthinvestor.com
Saddleback Valley Communities - svc4.com
Silverstar Finance and Janet French - silverstarfinance.com
Sunset Hills Memorial Park and Mortuary - sunsethills.cc
The Mission Inn - missioninn.com
The Mortgage Equity Group - http: themeg.net
The Naked Real Estate Investor Club - Rosie Nieto - nakedrealestateinvestorsclub.com
The Short Sale Processor and Nick Manfredi - theshortsaleprocessor.com
Virtual Real Estate Tour and Layla Tusko - 1wealthcreation.com
Wholesale Capital Corporation - wccmtg.com

Play Now

I Survived Real Estate 2008 part 7 #89

Part seven of “I Survived Real Estate 2008” picks up with the panel interview from the last session where Bruce talks about how Wall Street keeps calling to find out when bottom is so they can profit even though they are part of the reason we’re in this current situation.

Rick talks about large pools of money purchasing these loans at deep discounts and then fixing the principles of the people in the homes.

Bruce then responds by talking about HR3221 about how HUD can buy first trust deeds at a discount and how the new structure would allow them to alter the loan of the person in the property. Bruce worries about the ramifications of this program. It is limited in who can apply since it applies to adjustable mortgages only. The people who really get burned are those next door who qualified for a fixed loan and are making the payments. They did everything correctly but they don’t apply for the principle reduction. With California being a non recourse state, Bruce worries the dominos that might fall. Bruce then asks Philip Tirone if bailing from mortgages is becoming more acceptable.

Philip says clients don’t care about the moral issue of walking away; they are more concerned about the credit ramification. Philip talks about the raised loan limits and how everyone thought it would make a difference. They think things are going to help but when you get into the legislation, it doesn’t.

Bruce agrees with Christopher in that the median price has to become more reasonable. Christopher thinks another 6 months and everyone will qualify.

Tommy Williams brings up the very important point of moral hazard in letting something like a bailouts occur. Not holding consumers accountable sets up a larger problem for the future.

Bruce asks Christopher about Merrill Lynch taking .22 cents on the dollar for a $30 billion package of CDOs . He says they actually got 5% in cash and carried back a note and guaranteed the pile. Bruce asks whose money was actually lost. Christopher says it was the consumer investing in their company. Christopher says this buyout is another instrument and accounting mechanism. The financial system, Christopher says, is an absolute mess. All banks are having a difficult time. We’re having an issue with cash because of it.

Bruce asks Christopher about how FDIC can handle writing these sort of checks and if the government will just keep writing checks. Christopher says that they’ll have to be bailed out as well. Bruce asks if stagflation will be a problem. Christopher says he doesn’t think it will be an issue.

Bruce asks Rick Sharga about the difference between a bank owning a loan and the individual owner. Rick explains how the process works. Banks can accept the losses but the private investors can’t as easily take the hit. These loans are not as flexible as the securitized loans. Bruce talks about HR3221 and how the second must be wiped out first.

About 10% of the foreclosures list in Riverside being non-owner occupied but 70% out of the 90% that are owner occupied have simultaneous first and second at the time of purchase. Almost 100% of these properties are 100% financed.

Joel Singer brings up refinancing. The number of first payment defaults is huge because of bad credit and no skin in the game. The good news, he says, 2 out of 3 will stay in their home most likely. However, he is much more concerned about price drops then the mortgage resets. He thinks more people will walk if the prices get too low.

Bruce also brings up unemployment and how it will continue to go up. He says out migration will then probably force more to leave.

Bruce asks Annemaria if loan tightening happens during every cycle. Annemaria talk about how there’s a cycle and she thinks that this will never happen on this scale again. Lenders are in sheer panic because of what’s gone on and all the legislation now being presented. It’s a little late to implement since everyone has already got in. Bruce feels once we get into a safe market, the next person will dream up the next special mortgage.

Christopher says financial investors are always slipping in risk and hiding it. Incentives from Wall Street are bazaar and we need to not trust them so this doesn’t happen.

Bruce sees the foreclosures coming as being a huge problem and much worse then the 90s. In the 90s we had two times as many sales as we had foreclosures. This year, we’ll have two times as many foreclosures to sales.

Joel Singer says the 90s downturn was caused by unemployment. There were 7 years where prices were flat. Joel is curious to see if the market will clear faster because of the steep price drop. He thinks we have to make the market clear and he feels that it really already has. Joel is stunned at how many sales are currently being made and he doesn’t think it’s investor purchases. It’s cheaper to buy then rent in some places. Builders are having a hard time competing because homes are being bought below replacement costs.

Bruce talks about his Grand Junction, Colorado experience buying all of HUD’s condos. Bruce set all the costs at $8,000 a condo but no one would buy because the market was too scary. Emotions definitely play a role.

Rick says he talked to a man who handled the REO assets at a credit union and the man was wondering if RealtyTrac could supply him a list of who owned the first. Rick was surprised since he thought that would have been information that was gathered. The man said they did not have the information as little information was gathered on the first mortgage and little was taken on the homebuyer. More next week or see YouTube or Google video for the entire program. Next week is the final week of the audio.


The following partners and sponsors without whom the event would not have been possible:

Platinum Sponsors:
The San Diego Creative Investors Association (SDCIA): sdcia.com
Investors Workshops: investorsworkshops.com
Frye Wiles: fryewiles.com
Proxibid: proxibid.com
White House Catering: whcatering.com
MVT Productions: mvtpro.com
Pechanga Resort and Casino: pechanga.com
The Denver Nuggets: nba.com nuggets
The Chicago Bulls: nba.com bulls
The Cleveland Cavaliers: nba.com cavaliers

Gold Sponsors:
7 Steps to a 720 Credit Score and Philip X. Tirone - 7stepsto720.com
Chicago Title - ctic.com
Elite Auctions - sellwithauction.com
Foreclosure Trackers - foreclosuretrackers.com
Investors Resource Center of America LA and Steve and Robyn Love - irca-losangeles.com
Las Brisas Escrow - lasbrisasescrow.com
National Club of Real Estate Investors and Sam Saddat - ncrei.com
Northern California Real Estate Investors Association (Norcalreia) and David Granzella - norcalreia.com
North San Diego Real Estate Investors and Linda Wessels - nsdrei.org
RealtyTrac - realtytrac.com
RE Ventures and Michael Pines - reventuresrealty.com
Real Estate Investors Club of Los Angeles and Phyllis Rockower - realestateclubla.com
Real Wealth Investor and Scott Whaley - realwealthinvestor.com
Saddleback Valley Communities - svc4.com
Silverstar Finance and Janet French - silverstarfinance.com
Sunset Hills Memorial Park and Mortuary - sunsethills.cc
The Mission Inn - missioninn.com
The Mortgage Equity Group - http: themeg.net
The Naked Real Estate Investor Club - Rosie Nieto - nakedrealestateinvestorsclub.com
The Short Sale Processor and Nick Manfredi - theshortsaleprocessor.com
Virtual Real Estate Tour and Layla Tusko - 1wealthcreation.com
Wholesale Capital Corporation - wccmtg.com

Play Now

I Survived Real Estate 2008 part 6 #88

Part six of “I Survived Real Estate 2008” picks up with review from last week. Since this is the solution portion it’s very important. Later in the interview the Q&A with all panelists begins.

Bruce shows the audience a list of 20 homes The Norris Group purchased in the past 45 days through auction or out of the MLS and the huge price hits lenders are taking. On 20 transactions, the banks took a $4.6 million dollar loss. Bruce says he’s worried about the domino effect. Too many people owe more than their property is worth.

Bruce says there are three ways to solve a vacancy. We can tear down houses and create an artificial housing shortage. We can leave it vacant and wait for till household formation catches up with supply. Or, we could make it possible for investors to have financing to hold them.

Four solutions that are needed to get us back on track. The 203k loan program from FHA should be made available to investors. It was available to investors until 1996 and then FHA discontinued because it had done its job of getting rid of foreclosures. FHA doesn’t have a ton of foreclosures because they didn’t make a ton of loans. However, the loan program needs to be made available for investors to expedite the foreclosure problem.

Fannie and Freddie need to increase the number of loans they will give to investors. Both want to open offices in California to help unload inventory more quickly and investors are likely candidates. At the same time, they are cutting back on financing available. Both are in a dire situation. Fannie and Freddie hold a huge amount of the foreclosures.

Option Arms are the next wave and these loans represent 50% of Fannie and Freddie losses. Bruce shows the Option Arm reset chart. The chart shows the expected resets and what’s currently happening now. A huge number of these Option Arm loan holders are making teaser payments. Once the loan balance hits a certain percentage, the loan resets. 90% of the borrowers of these loans made the minimum payment. Many won’t walk until the reset because the payment is cheaper than rent.

The foreclosure process is now taking longer because the banks are so slammed but because of the new regulations as well. The bulk of these are set to land in 2009. The loan amounts were typically more than subprime and the lenders will have to recalculate what they made because of how they were writing things off.

Bruce says a due on sale moratorium would make it possible for investors to buy properties that would undoubtedly become foreclosures, it would allow Realtors and auctioneers to make commission on properties with no equity but favorable financing, allow a consumer to move on with credit intact, and improve liquidity in the system.

In the 1980s, foreclosures exploded but price deterioration wasn’t bad. Assumptions of loans saved the market. When interest rates were 17%, people were able to assume better financing. Bringing back the simple assumption could really help.

Bruce also suggests the 90 day seasoning period on properties to be removed so investors can fix houses and sell them more quickly. Bruce shows the audience the picture of one of The Norris Group’s fixed up properties. Bruce describes why our fixed up inventory is so important for the market. The assumption that investors are committing fraud is completely wrong and is actually causing more problems. The creation of the two levels of comps is necessary to keep prices stable.

Bruce also wants to see long-term financing for investors so we can get the market cranking again.

Bruce then starts the second part of event. All eight guests appear on the stage to discuss the solutions brought forward.

Tommy Williams starts off by speaking on the point that there are some properties that should be bulldozed as some neighborhoods would actually be better off.

Christopher Thornberg brings up the political ramifications and complications of solutions and the difficulty of getting people to listen. Christopher also brings up the myth where some people renting must mean that person’s life is a complete wash. Christopher also brings up how investors were blamed for the current market.

Bruce brings up the fact that all the solutions he proposed are not new and that they had existed at one time in the past. It’s nothing new and they worked before.

Rick Sharga says the number of properties in foreclosure that are not owner occupied have not gone up that much. The myth that the investor caused it is not correct. Rick points out that many of the solutions would have to be implemented one piece at a time and it would take time. Rick also talks about non profits getting involved. Habitat for Humanity is taking REOs and rehabbing them instead of starting from scratch. Rick also talks about how numerous investors are coming in with large pools of money ready to take down portfolios of notes.

Bruce talks about how he gets called by Wall Street often and how they are putting together multi-million dollar pools to do that and they want to know when bottom is. Bruce is not excited about the thought that the very companies that helped get us into this mess will be the ones who also take advantage of the current situation. More to come.

The following partners and sponsors without whom the event would not have been possible:

Platinum Sponsors:
The San Diego Creative Investors Association (SDCIA): sdcia.com
Investors Workshops: investorsworkshops.com
Frye Wiles: fryewiles.com
Proxibid: proxibid.com
White House Catering: whcatering.com
MVT Productions: mvtproductions.tv
Pechanga Resort and Casino: pechanga.com
The Denver Nuggets: nba.com nuggets
The Chicago Bulls: nba.com bulls
The Cleveland Cavaliers: nba.com cavaliers

Gold Sponsors:
7 Steps to a 720 Credit Score and Philip X. Tirone - 7stepsto720.com
Chicago Title - ctic.com
Elite Auctions - sellwithauction.com
Foreclosure Trackers - foreclosuretrackers.com
Investors Resource Center of America LA and Steve and Robyn Love - irca-losangeles.com
Las Brisas Escrow - lasbrisasescrow.com
National Club of Real Estate Investors and Sam Saddat - ncrei.com
Northern California Real Estate Investors Association (Norcalreia) and David Granzella - norcalreia.com
North San Diego Real Estate Investors and Linda Wessels - nsdrei.org
RealtyTrac - realtytrac.com
RE Ventures and Michael Pines - reventuresrealty.com
Real Estate Investors Club of Los Angeles and Phyllis Rockower - realestateclubla.com
Real Wealth Investor and Scott Whaley - realwealthinvestor.com
Saddleback Valley Communities - svc4.com
Silverstar Finance and Janet French - silverstarfinance.com
Sunset Hills Memorial Park and Mortuary - sunsethills.cc
The Mission Inn - missioninn.com
The Mortgage Equity Group - http: themeg.net
The Naked Real Estate Investor Club - Rosie Nieto - nakedrealestateinvestorsclub.com
The Short Sale Processor and Nick Manfredi - theshortsaleprocessor.com
Virtual Real Estate Tour and Layla Tusko - 1wealthcreation.com
Wholesale Capital Corporation - wccmtg.com

Play Now