Part nine of “I Survived Real Estate 2008” is the final portion of the radio segments for the event. The show picks up with a bit of a rerun from last week. All new discussions around minute 14.
We pick up where Tommy Williams chimes in and says there are other states that had the same inventory for half the price of the states that got overheated. Overheated states have to come back to “normal.”
Bruce says he agrees but says that’s part of the reason he loves California real estate. California wins so many tie breakers. There’s exciting volatility you don’t get in other states.
Bruce talks about Fannie and Freddie and if we’ll see them stay in private ownership.
Christopher Thornberg says they are clearly insolvent and he doesn’t know what they will do or how they will react. Typically they overact.
Bruce asks the panel if the government writing these big checks will increase inflation and if we’ll see much different interest rates three years from now.
Christopher describes the two ways our government pays the bills; issue debt or printing money. Christopher says our government assumes that investors have confidence in the system. If investors see the bottom drop out of the public bond market and the treasuries go crazy then there’s a problem but he says we’re far from that. Christopher says interest rates are now adjusting for the increased risk. Eventually they’ll come down when this crisis passes.
Bruce talks about when he became an investor he refinanced his house at 17% interest. Many people were telling him at the time he’d never see single digit interest rates again. Bruce says interest rates can be very high as long as the income to median price ratio makes sense. There could still be a healthy market.
Rick talks about market psychology and how nervous buyers and lenders are at the moment.
Bruce talks about the velocity of price drops in the market being historical and some are unaware. 35-50% price declines are shocking.
Joel discusses a Zillow study where 7 out of 10 people thought their home was still appreciating. Christopher Thornberg calls that homo-illucination and what it stands for.
Bruce asks Phil Tirone if lenders are skewing too conservative and not making loans at all. The automated underwriting was such a blessing at the time because it made things ease and now it’s making it worse. Phil describes people putting 50% down and he still can’t get financing because his client’s credit score is low.
Christopher says those automated systems were a disaster and that lenders knew how to manipulate the systems. Philip says these systems did help cause the problem. Christopher says once the price gets down low everyone will qualify.
Bruce touches on affordability. Bruce describes affordability and what it solves and does not solve. He describes past cycles and what he looks for in a turned around market. Bruce looks for migration coming back as the true indicator as the decline for foreclosures. We’ve gone from 16 months of inventory to under 7 months but sees it as a false indicator. Those that didn’t have to sell left the market.
Joel Singer disagrees. He’s assuming 85% of homes are owner occupied. He doesn’t see too many rentals occurring for those pulling out of the market since they don’t have to sell, especially in coastal regions. Inland Empire is where most of the vacancies are occurring. He agrees that people who don’t have to sell don’t and pull out of the market. He said it was like this in the 90s. Affordability tells you about first time buyers but not the trade up market. We still have to consider unemployment rate. Affordability is not perfect but decent indicator of first time buyers. Psychology is important too.
Joel says 50% more sales are occurring on top of tight lending so things could be changing. He thinks more investors are going to be needed for a certain period of time. He thinks a few of Bruce’s ideas could be sold but others could not. He does think from a policy point of view that affordability going up is a good thing.
The vacancy rate is getting close to the national average but it’s always different here in California. Joel thinks the loan assumptions idea won’t work. 90 day seasoning period for investors should be able to work with some sort of certification that the repairs have been done.
Bruce asks Christopher which chart he’s looking at for an end of the downturn. He says when prices stop dropping. Joel says that seasonally prices are sure to fall in the coming months as they typically do. Christopher rephrases his original comment to seasonally adjusted.
Joel feels prices in some areas are already improving and multiple bidding is occurring. Joel feels a bottom floor is starting to appear in some areas. The overall economy will be important in deciding the outcome as will the outcome for Fannie and Freddie.
Christopher says we have way too many 4,000 square foot houses. He also brings up unemployment so there are still other things to consider before he calls it over.
Joel reminds the audience that markets are local and that San Bernardino and South Bay are very different. He says most people will miss the bottom.
Bruce beings up the list of properties the Norris Group purchased. Homes The Norris Group purchased for $110k are now being bought for $85k. These properties often also have multiple bids but our offers are stronger. Bruce is worried about twice as many trustees deeds then sales in Riverside County. That ratio is much worse then last time.
Joel says statewide though it’s different and there’s still more sales than foreclosures. He’s actually surprised. If you go up to 400,000 foreclosures then there’s a much more serious problem.
Philip says there are portfolio lenders that are stepping up with non-owner occupied with low 7%-high 6%, 30% down, with no limit for investors. So there is financing out there.
Bruce thanks the panel and the evening ends. See also the video on YouTube or Google video.
The following partners and sponsors without whom the event would not have been possible:
Platinum Sponsors:
The San Diego Creative Investors Association (SDCIA): sdcia.com
Investors Workshops: investorsworkshops.com
Frye Wiles: fryewiles.com
Proxibid: proxibid.com
White House Catering: whcatering.com
MVT Productions: mvtpro.com
Pechanga Resort and Casino: pechanga.com
The Denver Nuggets: nba.com nuggets
The Chicago Bulls: nba.com bulls
The Cleveland Cavaliers: nba.com cavaliers
Gold Sponsors:
7 Steps to a 720 Credit Score and Philip X. Tirone - 7stepsto720.com
Chicago Title - ctic.com
Elite Auctions - sellwithauction.com
Foreclosure Trackers - foreclosuretrackers.com
Investors Resource Center of America LA and Steve and Robyn Love - irca-losangeles.com
Las Brisas Escrow - lasbrisasescrow.com
National Club of Real Estate Investors and Sam Saddat - ncrei.com
Northern California Real Estate Investors Association (Norcalreia) and David Granzella - norcalreia.com
North San Diego Real Estate Investors and Linda Wessels - nsdrei.org
RealtyTrac - realtytrac.com
RE Ventures and Michael Pines - reventuresrealty.com
Real Estate Investors Club of Los Angeles and Phyllis Rockower - realestateclubla.com
Real Wealth Investor and Scott Whaley - realwealthinvestor.com
Saddleback Valley Communities - svc4.com
Silverstar Finance and Janet French - silverstarfinance.com
Sunset Hills Memorial Park and Mortuary - sunsethills.cc
The Mission Inn - missioninn.com
The Mortgage Equity Group - http: themeg.net
The Naked Real Estate Investor Club - Rosie Nieto - nakedrealestateinvestorsclub.com
The Short Sale Processor and Nick Manfredi - theshortsaleprocessor.com
Virtual Real Estate Tour and Layla Tusko - 1wealthcreation.com
Wholesale Capital Corporation - wccmtg.com
Play Now
Showing posts with label due on sale moratorium. Show all posts
Showing posts with label due on sale moratorium. Show all posts
Friday, October 10, 2008
I Survived Real Estate 2008 part 8 #90
Part eight of “I Survived Real Estate 2008” picks up with Rick Sharga of RealtyTrac talking about a discussion he had with a man who handled the REO assets at a credit union. The man was wondering if RealtyTrac could supply him a list of who owned the firsts on a list properties. Rick was surprised since he thought that would have been information that was gathered. The man said they did not have the information as little information was gathered on the first mortgage and little was taken on the homebuyer.
Rick says this downturn is different from others in that other downturns were preceded by an economic downturn. RealtyTrac feels this kicked in first quarter of 2006. Unemployment was historically low as were interest rates. Rick sees we saw capitalism at its worst. We saw Realtors and mortgage brokers getting greedy along with Wall Street. Tools were being used in ways they never should have been used. The wheels this time all came off at once.
Bruce says there are a lot of new people in business. The greatest bull run got more and more people in and they rationalized that it would continue. Bruce talks about the discussions people make in a boom market and why it’s unwinding. Bruce also mentions a bet with a friend he made where he thought oil prices would be at $50 before they hit $150. This was when the price was $142.
Bruce asks Richard Lambros how the building industry looks at this market and the possibility of building. Richard talks about the builder journey through the last few years. This is a housing crisis combined with a credit crisis. Richard brings up how most people don’t like the solutions being presented but feels the solutions may be less painful then letting it correct on its own. He says builders are really in a position of waiting and the core issues are still an issue. California homes are very expensive to create and the government doesn’t seem to realize that.
Bruce asks Richard if when building resumes if the size of the homes will decline. Richard says the average went from 2,200 to 2,500 square feet and builders were looking at demand.
Bruce says he thinks this is an unusual event and this might never been happen again in our lifetime. Prices might skew so low that it will eventually attract mass migration. Once our home prices dip below those of neighboring states, we win the climate and coast battle and win migration. Once we get the migration, building will really be up and running again.
Tommy chimes in and says there are other states that had the same inventory for half the price of the states that got overheated. Overheated states have to come back to “normal.”
Bruce says he agrees but says that’s part of the reason he loves California real estate. California wins so many tie breakers. There’s exciting volatility you don’t get in other states.
Bruce talks about Fannie and Freddie and if we’ll see them stay in private ownership.
Christopher Thornberg says they are clearly insolvent and he doesn’t know what they will do or how they will react. Typically they overact.
Bruce asks the panel if the government writing these big checks will increase inflation and if we’ll see much different interest rates three years from now.
Christopher describes the two ways our government pays the bills; issue debt or printing money. Christopher says our government assumes that investors have confidence in the system. If investors see the bottom drop out of the public bond market and the treasuries go crazy then there’s a problem but he says we’re far from that. Christopher says interest rates are now adjusting for the increased risk. Eventually they’ll come down when this crisis passes.
Bruce talks about when he became an investor he refinanced his house at 17% interest. Many people were telling him at the time he’d never see single digit interest rates again. Bruce says interest rates can be very high as long as the income to median price ratio makes sense. There could still be a healthy market.
Rick talks about market psychology and how nervous buyers and lenders are at the moment.
Bruce talks about the velocity of price drops in the market being historical and some are unaware. 35-50% price declines are shocking.
Joel discusses a Zillow study where 7 out of 10 people thought their home was still appreciating. Christopher Thornberg calls that homo-illucination and what it stands for.
Bruce asks Phil Tirone if lenders are skewing too conservative and not making loans at all. The automated underwriting was such a blessing at the time because it made things ease and now it’s making it worse. Phil describes people putting 50% down and he still can’t get financing because his client’s credit score is low.
Christopher says those automated systems were a disaster and that lenders knew how to manipulate the systems. Philip says these systems did help cause the problem. Christopher says once the price gets down low everyone will qualify.
Bruce touches on affordability. Bruce describes affordability and what it solves and does not solve. He describes past cycles and what he looks for in a turned around market.
More in the last and final show. See also the video on YouTube or Google video.
The following partners and sponsors without whom the event would not have been possible:
Platinum Sponsors:
The San Diego Creative Investors Association (SDCIA): sdcia.com
Investors Workshops: investorsworkshops.com
Frye Wiles: fryewiles.com
Proxibid: proxibid.com
White House Catering: whcatering.com
MVT Productions: mvtpro.com
Pechanga Resort and Casino: pechanga.com
The Denver Nuggets: nba.com nuggets
The Chicago Bulls: nba.com bulls
The Cleveland Cavaliers: nba.com cavaliers
Gold Sponsors:
7 Steps to a 720 Credit Score and Philip X. Tirone - 7stepsto720.com
Chicago Title - ctic.com
Elite Auctions - sellwithauction.com
Foreclosure Trackers - foreclosuretrackers.com
Investors Resource Center of America LA and Steve and Robyn Love - irca-losangeles.com
Las Brisas Escrow - lasbrisasescrow.com
National Club of Real Estate Investors and Sam Saddat - ncrei.com
Northern California Real Estate Investors Association (Norcalreia) and David Granzella - norcalreia.com
North San Diego Real Estate Investors and Linda Wessels - nsdrei.org
RealtyTrac - realtytrac.com
RE Ventures and Michael Pines - reventuresrealty.com
Real Estate Investors Club of Los Angeles and Phyllis Rockower - realestateclubla.com
Real Wealth Investor and Scott Whaley - realwealthinvestor.com
Saddleback Valley Communities - svc4.com
Silverstar Finance and Janet French - silverstarfinance.com
Sunset Hills Memorial Park and Mortuary - sunsethills.cc
The Mission Inn - missioninn.com
The Mortgage Equity Group - http: themeg.net
The Naked Real Estate Investor Club - Rosie Nieto - nakedrealestateinvestorsclub.com
The Short Sale Processor and Nick Manfredi - theshortsaleprocessor.com
Virtual Real Estate Tour and Layla Tusko - 1wealthcreation.com
Wholesale Capital Corporation - wccmtg.com
Play Now
Rick says this downturn is different from others in that other downturns were preceded by an economic downturn. RealtyTrac feels this kicked in first quarter of 2006. Unemployment was historically low as were interest rates. Rick sees we saw capitalism at its worst. We saw Realtors and mortgage brokers getting greedy along with Wall Street. Tools were being used in ways they never should have been used. The wheels this time all came off at once.
Bruce says there are a lot of new people in business. The greatest bull run got more and more people in and they rationalized that it would continue. Bruce talks about the discussions people make in a boom market and why it’s unwinding. Bruce also mentions a bet with a friend he made where he thought oil prices would be at $50 before they hit $150. This was when the price was $142.
Bruce asks Richard Lambros how the building industry looks at this market and the possibility of building. Richard talks about the builder journey through the last few years. This is a housing crisis combined with a credit crisis. Richard brings up how most people don’t like the solutions being presented but feels the solutions may be less painful then letting it correct on its own. He says builders are really in a position of waiting and the core issues are still an issue. California homes are very expensive to create and the government doesn’t seem to realize that.
Bruce asks Richard if when building resumes if the size of the homes will decline. Richard says the average went from 2,200 to 2,500 square feet and builders were looking at demand.
Bruce says he thinks this is an unusual event and this might never been happen again in our lifetime. Prices might skew so low that it will eventually attract mass migration. Once our home prices dip below those of neighboring states, we win the climate and coast battle and win migration. Once we get the migration, building will really be up and running again.
Tommy chimes in and says there are other states that had the same inventory for half the price of the states that got overheated. Overheated states have to come back to “normal.”
Bruce says he agrees but says that’s part of the reason he loves California real estate. California wins so many tie breakers. There’s exciting volatility you don’t get in other states.
Bruce talks about Fannie and Freddie and if we’ll see them stay in private ownership.
Christopher Thornberg says they are clearly insolvent and he doesn’t know what they will do or how they will react. Typically they overact.
Bruce asks the panel if the government writing these big checks will increase inflation and if we’ll see much different interest rates three years from now.
Christopher describes the two ways our government pays the bills; issue debt or printing money. Christopher says our government assumes that investors have confidence in the system. If investors see the bottom drop out of the public bond market and the treasuries go crazy then there’s a problem but he says we’re far from that. Christopher says interest rates are now adjusting for the increased risk. Eventually they’ll come down when this crisis passes.
Bruce talks about when he became an investor he refinanced his house at 17% interest. Many people were telling him at the time he’d never see single digit interest rates again. Bruce says interest rates can be very high as long as the income to median price ratio makes sense. There could still be a healthy market.
Rick talks about market psychology and how nervous buyers and lenders are at the moment.
Bruce talks about the velocity of price drops in the market being historical and some are unaware. 35-50% price declines are shocking.
Joel discusses a Zillow study where 7 out of 10 people thought their home was still appreciating. Christopher Thornberg calls that homo-illucination and what it stands for.
Bruce asks Phil Tirone if lenders are skewing too conservative and not making loans at all. The automated underwriting was such a blessing at the time because it made things ease and now it’s making it worse. Phil describes people putting 50% down and he still can’t get financing because his client’s credit score is low.
Christopher says those automated systems were a disaster and that lenders knew how to manipulate the systems. Philip says these systems did help cause the problem. Christopher says once the price gets down low everyone will qualify.
Bruce touches on affordability. Bruce describes affordability and what it solves and does not solve. He describes past cycles and what he looks for in a turned around market.
More in the last and final show. See also the video on YouTube or Google video.
The following partners and sponsors without whom the event would not have been possible:
Platinum Sponsors:
The San Diego Creative Investors Association (SDCIA): sdcia.com
Investors Workshops: investorsworkshops.com
Frye Wiles: fryewiles.com
Proxibid: proxibid.com
White House Catering: whcatering.com
MVT Productions: mvtpro.com
Pechanga Resort and Casino: pechanga.com
The Denver Nuggets: nba.com nuggets
The Chicago Bulls: nba.com bulls
The Cleveland Cavaliers: nba.com cavaliers
Gold Sponsors:
7 Steps to a 720 Credit Score and Philip X. Tirone - 7stepsto720.com
Chicago Title - ctic.com
Elite Auctions - sellwithauction.com
Foreclosure Trackers - foreclosuretrackers.com
Investors Resource Center of America LA and Steve and Robyn Love - irca-losangeles.com
Las Brisas Escrow - lasbrisasescrow.com
National Club of Real Estate Investors and Sam Saddat - ncrei.com
Northern California Real Estate Investors Association (Norcalreia) and David Granzella - norcalreia.com
North San Diego Real Estate Investors and Linda Wessels - nsdrei.org
RealtyTrac - realtytrac.com
RE Ventures and Michael Pines - reventuresrealty.com
Real Estate Investors Club of Los Angeles and Phyllis Rockower - realestateclubla.com
Real Wealth Investor and Scott Whaley - realwealthinvestor.com
Saddleback Valley Communities - svc4.com
Silverstar Finance and Janet French - silverstarfinance.com
Sunset Hills Memorial Park and Mortuary - sunsethills.cc
The Mission Inn - missioninn.com
The Mortgage Equity Group - http: themeg.net
The Naked Real Estate Investor Club - Rosie Nieto - nakedrealestateinvestorsclub.com
The Short Sale Processor and Nick Manfredi - theshortsaleprocessor.com
Virtual Real Estate Tour and Layla Tusko - 1wealthcreation.com
Wholesale Capital Corporation - wccmtg.com
Play Now
Friday, October 3, 2008
I Survived Real Estate 2008 part 7 #89
Part seven of “I Survived Real Estate 2008” picks up with the panel interview from the last session where Bruce talks about how Wall Street keeps calling to find out when bottom is so they can profit even though they are part of the reason we’re in this current situation.
Rick talks about large pools of money purchasing these loans at deep discounts and then fixing the principles of the people in the homes.
Bruce then responds by talking about HR3221 about how HUD can buy first trust deeds at a discount and how the new structure would allow them to alter the loan of the person in the property. Bruce worries about the ramifications of this program. It is limited in who can apply since it applies to adjustable mortgages only. The people who really get burned are those next door who qualified for a fixed loan and are making the payments. They did everything correctly but they don’t apply for the principle reduction. With California being a non recourse state, Bruce worries the dominos that might fall. Bruce then asks Philip Tirone if bailing from mortgages is becoming more acceptable.
Philip says clients don’t care about the moral issue of walking away; they are more concerned about the credit ramification. Philip talks about the raised loan limits and how everyone thought it would make a difference. They think things are going to help but when you get into the legislation, it doesn’t.
Bruce agrees with Christopher in that the median price has to become more reasonable. Christopher thinks another 6 months and everyone will qualify.
Tommy Williams brings up the very important point of moral hazard in letting something like a bailouts occur. Not holding consumers accountable sets up a larger problem for the future.
Bruce asks Christopher about Merrill Lynch taking .22 cents on the dollar for a $30 billion package of CDOs . He says they actually got 5% in cash and carried back a note and guaranteed the pile. Bruce asks whose money was actually lost. Christopher says it was the consumer investing in their company. Christopher says this buyout is another instrument and accounting mechanism. The financial system, Christopher says, is an absolute mess. All banks are having a difficult time. We’re having an issue with cash because of it.
Bruce asks Christopher about how FDIC can handle writing these sort of checks and if the government will just keep writing checks. Christopher says that they’ll have to be bailed out as well. Bruce asks if stagflation will be a problem. Christopher says he doesn’t think it will be an issue.
Bruce asks Rick Sharga about the difference between a bank owning a loan and the individual owner. Rick explains how the process works. Banks can accept the losses but the private investors can’t as easily take the hit. These loans are not as flexible as the securitized loans. Bruce talks about HR3221 and how the second must be wiped out first.
About 10% of the foreclosures list in Riverside being non-owner occupied but 70% out of the 90% that are owner occupied have simultaneous first and second at the time of purchase. Almost 100% of these properties are 100% financed.
Joel Singer brings up refinancing. The number of first payment defaults is huge because of bad credit and no skin in the game. The good news, he says, 2 out of 3 will stay in their home most likely. However, he is much more concerned about price drops then the mortgage resets. He thinks more people will walk if the prices get too low.
Bruce also brings up unemployment and how it will continue to go up. He says out migration will then probably force more to leave.
Bruce asks Annemaria if loan tightening happens during every cycle. Annemaria talk about how there’s a cycle and she thinks that this will never happen on this scale again. Lenders are in sheer panic because of what’s gone on and all the legislation now being presented. It’s a little late to implement since everyone has already got in. Bruce feels once we get into a safe market, the next person will dream up the next special mortgage.
Christopher says financial investors are always slipping in risk and hiding it. Incentives from Wall Street are bazaar and we need to not trust them so this doesn’t happen.
Bruce sees the foreclosures coming as being a huge problem and much worse then the 90s. In the 90s we had two times as many sales as we had foreclosures. This year, we’ll have two times as many foreclosures to sales.
Joel Singer says the 90s downturn was caused by unemployment. There were 7 years where prices were flat. Joel is curious to see if the market will clear faster because of the steep price drop. He thinks we have to make the market clear and he feels that it really already has. Joel is stunned at how many sales are currently being made and he doesn’t think it’s investor purchases. It’s cheaper to buy then rent in some places. Builders are having a hard time competing because homes are being bought below replacement costs.
Bruce talks about his Grand Junction, Colorado experience buying all of HUD’s condos. Bruce set all the costs at $8,000 a condo but no one would buy because the market was too scary. Emotions definitely play a role.
Rick says he talked to a man who handled the REO assets at a credit union and the man was wondering if RealtyTrac could supply him a list of who owned the first. Rick was surprised since he thought that would have been information that was gathered. The man said they did not have the information as little information was gathered on the first mortgage and little was taken on the homebuyer. More next week or see YouTube or Google video for the entire program. Next week is the final week of the audio.
The following partners and sponsors without whom the event would not have been possible:
Platinum Sponsors:
The San Diego Creative Investors Association (SDCIA): sdcia.com
Investors Workshops: investorsworkshops.com
Frye Wiles: fryewiles.com
Proxibid: proxibid.com
White House Catering: whcatering.com
MVT Productions: mvtpro.com
Pechanga Resort and Casino: pechanga.com
The Denver Nuggets: nba.com nuggets
The Chicago Bulls: nba.com bulls
The Cleveland Cavaliers: nba.com cavaliers
Gold Sponsors:
7 Steps to a 720 Credit Score and Philip X. Tirone - 7stepsto720.com
Chicago Title - ctic.com
Elite Auctions - sellwithauction.com
Foreclosure Trackers - foreclosuretrackers.com
Investors Resource Center of America LA and Steve and Robyn Love - irca-losangeles.com
Las Brisas Escrow - lasbrisasescrow.com
National Club of Real Estate Investors and Sam Saddat - ncrei.com
Northern California Real Estate Investors Association (Norcalreia) and David Granzella - norcalreia.com
North San Diego Real Estate Investors and Linda Wessels - nsdrei.org
RealtyTrac - realtytrac.com
RE Ventures and Michael Pines - reventuresrealty.com
Real Estate Investors Club of Los Angeles and Phyllis Rockower - realestateclubla.com
Real Wealth Investor and Scott Whaley - realwealthinvestor.com
Saddleback Valley Communities - svc4.com
Silverstar Finance and Janet French - silverstarfinance.com
Sunset Hills Memorial Park and Mortuary - sunsethills.cc
The Mission Inn - missioninn.com
The Mortgage Equity Group - http: themeg.net
The Naked Real Estate Investor Club - Rosie Nieto - nakedrealestateinvestorsclub.com
The Short Sale Processor and Nick Manfredi - theshortsaleprocessor.com
Virtual Real Estate Tour and Layla Tusko - 1wealthcreation.com
Wholesale Capital Corporation - wccmtg.com
Play Now
Rick talks about large pools of money purchasing these loans at deep discounts and then fixing the principles of the people in the homes.
Bruce then responds by talking about HR3221 about how HUD can buy first trust deeds at a discount and how the new structure would allow them to alter the loan of the person in the property. Bruce worries about the ramifications of this program. It is limited in who can apply since it applies to adjustable mortgages only. The people who really get burned are those next door who qualified for a fixed loan and are making the payments. They did everything correctly but they don’t apply for the principle reduction. With California being a non recourse state, Bruce worries the dominos that might fall. Bruce then asks Philip Tirone if bailing from mortgages is becoming more acceptable.
Philip says clients don’t care about the moral issue of walking away; they are more concerned about the credit ramification. Philip talks about the raised loan limits and how everyone thought it would make a difference. They think things are going to help but when you get into the legislation, it doesn’t.
Bruce agrees with Christopher in that the median price has to become more reasonable. Christopher thinks another 6 months and everyone will qualify.
Tommy Williams brings up the very important point of moral hazard in letting something like a bailouts occur. Not holding consumers accountable sets up a larger problem for the future.
Bruce asks Christopher about Merrill Lynch taking .22 cents on the dollar for a $30 billion package of CDOs . He says they actually got 5% in cash and carried back a note and guaranteed the pile. Bruce asks whose money was actually lost. Christopher says it was the consumer investing in their company. Christopher says this buyout is another instrument and accounting mechanism. The financial system, Christopher says, is an absolute mess. All banks are having a difficult time. We’re having an issue with cash because of it.
Bruce asks Christopher about how FDIC can handle writing these sort of checks and if the government will just keep writing checks. Christopher says that they’ll have to be bailed out as well. Bruce asks if stagflation will be a problem. Christopher says he doesn’t think it will be an issue.
Bruce asks Rick Sharga about the difference between a bank owning a loan and the individual owner. Rick explains how the process works. Banks can accept the losses but the private investors can’t as easily take the hit. These loans are not as flexible as the securitized loans. Bruce talks about HR3221 and how the second must be wiped out first.
About 10% of the foreclosures list in Riverside being non-owner occupied but 70% out of the 90% that are owner occupied have simultaneous first and second at the time of purchase. Almost 100% of these properties are 100% financed.
Joel Singer brings up refinancing. The number of first payment defaults is huge because of bad credit and no skin in the game. The good news, he says, 2 out of 3 will stay in their home most likely. However, he is much more concerned about price drops then the mortgage resets. He thinks more people will walk if the prices get too low.
Bruce also brings up unemployment and how it will continue to go up. He says out migration will then probably force more to leave.
Bruce asks Annemaria if loan tightening happens during every cycle. Annemaria talk about how there’s a cycle and she thinks that this will never happen on this scale again. Lenders are in sheer panic because of what’s gone on and all the legislation now being presented. It’s a little late to implement since everyone has already got in. Bruce feels once we get into a safe market, the next person will dream up the next special mortgage.
Christopher says financial investors are always slipping in risk and hiding it. Incentives from Wall Street are bazaar and we need to not trust them so this doesn’t happen.
Bruce sees the foreclosures coming as being a huge problem and much worse then the 90s. In the 90s we had two times as many sales as we had foreclosures. This year, we’ll have two times as many foreclosures to sales.
Joel Singer says the 90s downturn was caused by unemployment. There were 7 years where prices were flat. Joel is curious to see if the market will clear faster because of the steep price drop. He thinks we have to make the market clear and he feels that it really already has. Joel is stunned at how many sales are currently being made and he doesn’t think it’s investor purchases. It’s cheaper to buy then rent in some places. Builders are having a hard time competing because homes are being bought below replacement costs.
Bruce talks about his Grand Junction, Colorado experience buying all of HUD’s condos. Bruce set all the costs at $8,000 a condo but no one would buy because the market was too scary. Emotions definitely play a role.
Rick says he talked to a man who handled the REO assets at a credit union and the man was wondering if RealtyTrac could supply him a list of who owned the first. Rick was surprised since he thought that would have been information that was gathered. The man said they did not have the information as little information was gathered on the first mortgage and little was taken on the homebuyer. More next week or see YouTube or Google video for the entire program. Next week is the final week of the audio.
The following partners and sponsors without whom the event would not have been possible:
Platinum Sponsors:
The San Diego Creative Investors Association (SDCIA): sdcia.com
Investors Workshops: investorsworkshops.com
Frye Wiles: fryewiles.com
Proxibid: proxibid.com
White House Catering: whcatering.com
MVT Productions: mvtpro.com
Pechanga Resort and Casino: pechanga.com
The Denver Nuggets: nba.com nuggets
The Chicago Bulls: nba.com bulls
The Cleveland Cavaliers: nba.com cavaliers
Gold Sponsors:
7 Steps to a 720 Credit Score and Philip X. Tirone - 7stepsto720.com
Chicago Title - ctic.com
Elite Auctions - sellwithauction.com
Foreclosure Trackers - foreclosuretrackers.com
Investors Resource Center of America LA and Steve and Robyn Love - irca-losangeles.com
Las Brisas Escrow - lasbrisasescrow.com
National Club of Real Estate Investors and Sam Saddat - ncrei.com
Northern California Real Estate Investors Association (Norcalreia) and David Granzella - norcalreia.com
North San Diego Real Estate Investors and Linda Wessels - nsdrei.org
RealtyTrac - realtytrac.com
RE Ventures and Michael Pines - reventuresrealty.com
Real Estate Investors Club of Los Angeles and Phyllis Rockower - realestateclubla.com
Real Wealth Investor and Scott Whaley - realwealthinvestor.com
Saddleback Valley Communities - svc4.com
Silverstar Finance and Janet French - silverstarfinance.com
Sunset Hills Memorial Park and Mortuary - sunsethills.cc
The Mission Inn - missioninn.com
The Mortgage Equity Group - http: themeg.net
The Naked Real Estate Investor Club - Rosie Nieto - nakedrealestateinvestorsclub.com
The Short Sale Processor and Nick Manfredi - theshortsaleprocessor.com
Virtual Real Estate Tour and Layla Tusko - 1wealthcreation.com
Wholesale Capital Corporation - wccmtg.com
Play Now
I Survived Real Estate 2008 part 6 #88
Part six of “I Survived Real Estate 2008” picks up with review from last week. Since this is the solution portion it’s very important. Later in the interview the Q&A with all panelists begins.
Bruce shows the audience a list of 20 homes The Norris Group purchased in the past 45 days through auction or out of the MLS and the huge price hits lenders are taking. On 20 transactions, the banks took a $4.6 million dollar loss. Bruce says he’s worried about the domino effect. Too many people owe more than their property is worth.
Bruce says there are three ways to solve a vacancy. We can tear down houses and create an artificial housing shortage. We can leave it vacant and wait for till household formation catches up with supply. Or, we could make it possible for investors to have financing to hold them.
Four solutions that are needed to get us back on track. The 203k loan program from FHA should be made available to investors. It was available to investors until 1996 and then FHA discontinued because it had done its job of getting rid of foreclosures. FHA doesn’t have a ton of foreclosures because they didn’t make a ton of loans. However, the loan program needs to be made available for investors to expedite the foreclosure problem.
Fannie and Freddie need to increase the number of loans they will give to investors. Both want to open offices in California to help unload inventory more quickly and investors are likely candidates. At the same time, they are cutting back on financing available. Both are in a dire situation. Fannie and Freddie hold a huge amount of the foreclosures.
Option Arms are the next wave and these loans represent 50% of Fannie and Freddie losses. Bruce shows the Option Arm reset chart. The chart shows the expected resets and what’s currently happening now. A huge number of these Option Arm loan holders are making teaser payments. Once the loan balance hits a certain percentage, the loan resets. 90% of the borrowers of these loans made the minimum payment. Many won’t walk until the reset because the payment is cheaper than rent.
The foreclosure process is now taking longer because the banks are so slammed but because of the new regulations as well. The bulk of these are set to land in 2009. The loan amounts were typically more than subprime and the lenders will have to recalculate what they made because of how they were writing things off.
Bruce says a due on sale moratorium would make it possible for investors to buy properties that would undoubtedly become foreclosures, it would allow Realtors and auctioneers to make commission on properties with no equity but favorable financing, allow a consumer to move on with credit intact, and improve liquidity in the system.
In the 1980s, foreclosures exploded but price deterioration wasn’t bad. Assumptions of loans saved the market. When interest rates were 17%, people were able to assume better financing. Bringing back the simple assumption could really help.
Bruce also suggests the 90 day seasoning period on properties to be removed so investors can fix houses and sell them more quickly. Bruce shows the audience the picture of one of The Norris Group’s fixed up properties. Bruce describes why our fixed up inventory is so important for the market. The assumption that investors are committing fraud is completely wrong and is actually causing more problems. The creation of the two levels of comps is necessary to keep prices stable.
Bruce also wants to see long-term financing for investors so we can get the market cranking again.
Bruce then starts the second part of event. All eight guests appear on the stage to discuss the solutions brought forward.
Tommy Williams starts off by speaking on the point that there are some properties that should be bulldozed as some neighborhoods would actually be better off.
Christopher Thornberg brings up the political ramifications and complications of solutions and the difficulty of getting people to listen. Christopher also brings up the myth where some people renting must mean that person’s life is a complete wash. Christopher also brings up how investors were blamed for the current market.
Bruce brings up the fact that all the solutions he proposed are not new and that they had existed at one time in the past. It’s nothing new and they worked before.
Rick Sharga says the number of properties in foreclosure that are not owner occupied have not gone up that much. The myth that the investor caused it is not correct. Rick points out that many of the solutions would have to be implemented one piece at a time and it would take time. Rick also talks about non profits getting involved. Habitat for Humanity is taking REOs and rehabbing them instead of starting from scratch. Rick also talks about how numerous investors are coming in with large pools of money ready to take down portfolios of notes.
Bruce talks about how he gets called by Wall Street often and how they are putting together multi-million dollar pools to do that and they want to know when bottom is. Bruce is not excited about the thought that the very companies that helped get us into this mess will be the ones who also take advantage of the current situation. More to come.
The following partners and sponsors without whom the event would not have been possible:
Platinum Sponsors:
The San Diego Creative Investors Association (SDCIA): sdcia.com
Investors Workshops: investorsworkshops.com
Frye Wiles: fryewiles.com
Proxibid: proxibid.com
White House Catering: whcatering.com
MVT Productions: mvtproductions.tv
Pechanga Resort and Casino: pechanga.com
The Denver Nuggets: nba.com nuggets
The Chicago Bulls: nba.com bulls
The Cleveland Cavaliers: nba.com cavaliers
Gold Sponsors:
7 Steps to a 720 Credit Score and Philip X. Tirone - 7stepsto720.com
Chicago Title - ctic.com
Elite Auctions - sellwithauction.com
Foreclosure Trackers - foreclosuretrackers.com
Investors Resource Center of America LA and Steve and Robyn Love - irca-losangeles.com
Las Brisas Escrow - lasbrisasescrow.com
National Club of Real Estate Investors and Sam Saddat - ncrei.com
Northern California Real Estate Investors Association (Norcalreia) and David Granzella - norcalreia.com
North San Diego Real Estate Investors and Linda Wessels - nsdrei.org
RealtyTrac - realtytrac.com
RE Ventures and Michael Pines - reventuresrealty.com
Real Estate Investors Club of Los Angeles and Phyllis Rockower - realestateclubla.com
Real Wealth Investor and Scott Whaley - realwealthinvestor.com
Saddleback Valley Communities - svc4.com
Silverstar Finance and Janet French - silverstarfinance.com
Sunset Hills Memorial Park and Mortuary - sunsethills.cc
The Mission Inn - missioninn.com
The Mortgage Equity Group - http: themeg.net
The Naked Real Estate Investor Club - Rosie Nieto - nakedrealestateinvestorsclub.com
The Short Sale Processor and Nick Manfredi - theshortsaleprocessor.com
Virtual Real Estate Tour and Layla Tusko - 1wealthcreation.com
Wholesale Capital Corporation - wccmtg.com
Play Now
Bruce shows the audience a list of 20 homes The Norris Group purchased in the past 45 days through auction or out of the MLS and the huge price hits lenders are taking. On 20 transactions, the banks took a $4.6 million dollar loss. Bruce says he’s worried about the domino effect. Too many people owe more than their property is worth.
Bruce says there are three ways to solve a vacancy. We can tear down houses and create an artificial housing shortage. We can leave it vacant and wait for till household formation catches up with supply. Or, we could make it possible for investors to have financing to hold them.
Four solutions that are needed to get us back on track. The 203k loan program from FHA should be made available to investors. It was available to investors until 1996 and then FHA discontinued because it had done its job of getting rid of foreclosures. FHA doesn’t have a ton of foreclosures because they didn’t make a ton of loans. However, the loan program needs to be made available for investors to expedite the foreclosure problem.
Fannie and Freddie need to increase the number of loans they will give to investors. Both want to open offices in California to help unload inventory more quickly and investors are likely candidates. At the same time, they are cutting back on financing available. Both are in a dire situation. Fannie and Freddie hold a huge amount of the foreclosures.
Option Arms are the next wave and these loans represent 50% of Fannie and Freddie losses. Bruce shows the Option Arm reset chart. The chart shows the expected resets and what’s currently happening now. A huge number of these Option Arm loan holders are making teaser payments. Once the loan balance hits a certain percentage, the loan resets. 90% of the borrowers of these loans made the minimum payment. Many won’t walk until the reset because the payment is cheaper than rent.
The foreclosure process is now taking longer because the banks are so slammed but because of the new regulations as well. The bulk of these are set to land in 2009. The loan amounts were typically more than subprime and the lenders will have to recalculate what they made because of how they were writing things off.
Bruce says a due on sale moratorium would make it possible for investors to buy properties that would undoubtedly become foreclosures, it would allow Realtors and auctioneers to make commission on properties with no equity but favorable financing, allow a consumer to move on with credit intact, and improve liquidity in the system.
In the 1980s, foreclosures exploded but price deterioration wasn’t bad. Assumptions of loans saved the market. When interest rates were 17%, people were able to assume better financing. Bringing back the simple assumption could really help.
Bruce also suggests the 90 day seasoning period on properties to be removed so investors can fix houses and sell them more quickly. Bruce shows the audience the picture of one of The Norris Group’s fixed up properties. Bruce describes why our fixed up inventory is so important for the market. The assumption that investors are committing fraud is completely wrong and is actually causing more problems. The creation of the two levels of comps is necessary to keep prices stable.
Bruce also wants to see long-term financing for investors so we can get the market cranking again.
Bruce then starts the second part of event. All eight guests appear on the stage to discuss the solutions brought forward.
Tommy Williams starts off by speaking on the point that there are some properties that should be bulldozed as some neighborhoods would actually be better off.
Christopher Thornberg brings up the political ramifications and complications of solutions and the difficulty of getting people to listen. Christopher also brings up the myth where some people renting must mean that person’s life is a complete wash. Christopher also brings up how investors were blamed for the current market.
Bruce brings up the fact that all the solutions he proposed are not new and that they had existed at one time in the past. It’s nothing new and they worked before.
Rick Sharga says the number of properties in foreclosure that are not owner occupied have not gone up that much. The myth that the investor caused it is not correct. Rick points out that many of the solutions would have to be implemented one piece at a time and it would take time. Rick also talks about non profits getting involved. Habitat for Humanity is taking REOs and rehabbing them instead of starting from scratch. Rick also talks about how numerous investors are coming in with large pools of money ready to take down portfolios of notes.
Bruce talks about how he gets called by Wall Street often and how they are putting together multi-million dollar pools to do that and they want to know when bottom is. Bruce is not excited about the thought that the very companies that helped get us into this mess will be the ones who also take advantage of the current situation. More to come.
The following partners and sponsors without whom the event would not have been possible:
Platinum Sponsors:
The San Diego Creative Investors Association (SDCIA): sdcia.com
Investors Workshops: investorsworkshops.com
Frye Wiles: fryewiles.com
Proxibid: proxibid.com
White House Catering: whcatering.com
MVT Productions: mvtproductions.tv
Pechanga Resort and Casino: pechanga.com
The Denver Nuggets: nba.com nuggets
The Chicago Bulls: nba.com bulls
The Cleveland Cavaliers: nba.com cavaliers
Gold Sponsors:
7 Steps to a 720 Credit Score and Philip X. Tirone - 7stepsto720.com
Chicago Title - ctic.com
Elite Auctions - sellwithauction.com
Foreclosure Trackers - foreclosuretrackers.com
Investors Resource Center of America LA and Steve and Robyn Love - irca-losangeles.com
Las Brisas Escrow - lasbrisasescrow.com
National Club of Real Estate Investors and Sam Saddat - ncrei.com
Northern California Real Estate Investors Association (Norcalreia) and David Granzella - norcalreia.com
North San Diego Real Estate Investors and Linda Wessels - nsdrei.org
RealtyTrac - realtytrac.com
RE Ventures and Michael Pines - reventuresrealty.com
Real Estate Investors Club of Los Angeles and Phyllis Rockower - realestateclubla.com
Real Wealth Investor and Scott Whaley - realwealthinvestor.com
Saddleback Valley Communities - svc4.com
Silverstar Finance and Janet French - silverstarfinance.com
Sunset Hills Memorial Park and Mortuary - sunsethills.cc
The Mission Inn - missioninn.com
The Mortgage Equity Group - http: themeg.net
The Naked Real Estate Investor Club - Rosie Nieto - nakedrealestateinvestorsclub.com
The Short Sale Processor and Nick Manfredi - theshortsaleprocessor.com
Virtual Real Estate Tour and Layla Tusko - 1wealthcreation.com
Wholesale Capital Corporation - wccmtg.com
Play Now
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