Joseph Magdziarz Joins Bruce Norris on the Real Estate Radio Show #188

This week the Norris Group continues with radio interviews leading up to I Survived Real Estate 2010: The State of REO. On the radio show this week is 2011 president of the Appraisal Institute, Joseph Magdziarz. Bruce and and Joseph discuss current developments for the appraisal industry including HVCC nad possible changes moving forward and the industry adjusts in the marketplace.

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Randy and Mike Griff of Elite Auctions #124

This week, Bruce is joined again by Randy and Mike Grigg who head Elite Auctions. Randy Grigg is President of Elite Auctions and Mike Grigg is the Chief Auctioneer.

Last week, Bruce, Randy, and Mike discussed a Riverside auction in which a man bought a home out of the MLS. Because of the price deterioration in the market, Bruce said that the man should flip the property via auction. In the end, the buyer earned a large profit after the property sold. Bruce asks about the costs to market.

Randy and Mike Grigg discuss marketing and advertising and what the auction company does to attract attention. They are also able to show all their results to their clients, so that they know where their money is being spent. Bruce asks Mike and Randy how many people showed up to a particular open house they had. They had approximately 60 to 80 people come in to view their property. They typically have a successful auction when there are that many people attending their open house.

Whenever someone attends one of their auctions, they always ask the attendees how they heard about their auction. Only about 30 percent of their attendees go to the open house. In this case, the winning bidder did not go to the open house. The winning bidder owned rental properties in that same area, and he was attracted to the property from a post card advertisement. Altogether, 38 bidders showed up at the auction, and they all had $5,000 dollar cashiers checks. The home being sold needed paint, carpet, and the kitchen was in bad shape. Just down the street from their auction, REDC was selling similar inventory for $98,000. The final sale price for this house was $147,400. The investor bought the home for $75,000. What a fantastic deal. They closed the property in 12 days.

Bruce goes on to discuss what people consider to be a “deal”. Bruce believes that if that buyer owned homes in that same neighborhood then he might have paid more for every house that he owns than that particular one. People are used to thinking that real estate is so cheap, that they have forgotten that real estate used to be 2 or 3 times the current price. Sarah, Bruce’s daughter, bought a house very recently. From Bruce’s perspective, her deal was the interest rate she received. The market was at 5%. The man who bought this property knew the area he was buying in, so the purchase worked well for him.

Auctioning properties is challenging right now, because buyers are very cautious. In a market where prices are escalating quickly, the auctioneer will be ahead of the prices in the MLS. The consumers prove how much the auctioned property is worth when there is competition. Bruce believes that his properties in Rosamond would have sold better if they had been auctioned. Bruce is surprised builders don’t use this method instead.

Bruce asks what Mike’s duties are as the president of the California Auction Association. Mike’s main duty is following California government legislation in regards to real estate auctions. He also assists other auctioneers by showing them what they need to do to be a legitimate auctioneer. Mike arranges conferences where speakers come and talk about their specialties. The main goal is to better California’s auctioneers, so that they can offer better service to their clients.
Bruce asks Mike if there are California rules that trump national rules and vice versa. Mike says that auctioning rules vary greatly state to state, and that California is actually very lenient. Mike would like to see more legislation to stop people from holding deposits for lengthy amounts of time after the bid is rejected from the lender. Bidding on behalf of auctioneers is also something that needs to be addressed by legislation. Instead of an auctioneer having to be licensed like a realtor, there should be a separate real estate auction test. It’s very different.

Bruce asks Mike what C.A.R. thinks of real estate auctioning. Mike does not think that C.A.R. views auctions as a bad thing. There are some Realtors that view auctions as a threat to their business, but it is not. Mike and Randy pay Realtors if they bring in buyers and sellers.

Approximately 10 percent of the time a Realtor represents a client for his auctions. Occasionally, Realtors get confused by the process because they are not used to that method, but Mike does not feel that this has affected his ability to close a deal.
In the United States people have viewed auctioning as a necessary evil. Bruce asks Mike if he thinks that auctioning will have a strong foot hold in the real estate business in the future. Mike thinks that auctioning will become more important for real estate sales in the future. California seems to be far behind the rest of the United States in regards to understanding the value in auction sales.

Bruce believes that the key going forward is to have repetitive clients. If investors get the idea that they can efficiently sell houses in auctions then it would be constantly viewed by retail people as a respectable selling method. Mike believes that as the real estate market returns many of the big auction houses will go back to land auctions, but Mike and Randy’s business will stay as a local California business.

Bruce asks Randy what kind of perception change has taken place in the auction industry. Randy thinks that much of the public still view auctions as a fire sale, but many investors believe that it is an effective way to sale inventory. It depends on who you talk to.

Bruce discusses how variable the results can be when selling properties through auctions. The right person for the sale may or may not be attending. Often the problem with auction sales lies within the seller’s expectations. When people own properties, which they have assigned a feeling of value to, it can distort one’s perception of whether or not a property is being sold at the right price. Randy believes that houses sold through auctions are priced properly about 80 to 90 percent of the time.

Bruce asks Mike how different it is to auction real estate in comparison to other auctions. In real estate you do not get paid immediately. You have to go through escrow, and you have to understand how to deal with Realtors. An antique seller is not going to understand real estate, just as a real estate auctioneer will not understand antiques. In the rest of the auctioneer industry, you usually get paid immediately after the sale. Online auctions are also much different than the on site real estate auctions that Mike and Randy handle.

The number for Elite Auction is 661-325-6500, and their website is www.sellwithauction.com

Randy Grigg
President

Being involved with real estate transactions since 1977, Randy discovered the benefits of using the auction method of marketing real estate after completing a single-family house rehab project that had three failed escrows. Selling time went from 2 months to 7 months due to the buyers backing out because of financing and appraisal contingencies. These extra 5 months of holding costs dramatically reduced the net profit.

As a "control freak" (and knowing other people are too) we designed our company to cater to the desire of our clients to sell their properties quickly in "as-is" condition with no loan, appraisal or property contingencies... at the highest price the market will bear. By selling my own properties "absolute" (no reserve), we learned first hand how to get the right bidders to our auctions. After we continued tweaking our marketing program we finally felt comfortable selling for others. We also have developed a strategy for selling real estate for others where our clients have full control over the final selling price, again understanding many of our clients desire for complete control.


Mike Grigg
AARE - Auctioneer / Agent

Mike graduated from the prestigious "World Champion College of Auctioneers." He has participated in charity and real estate auctions and handles agent/broker relations. Mike serves as President for the California State Auctioneers Association (CSAA). He has been designated AARE, which means he is an Accredited Auctioneer of Real Estate appointed by the National Auctioneers Association.

Mike has called a variety of real estate auctions in California and knows what it takes to get the buyers to competitively bid and drive the prices up. He is one of the 2004 California State Auctioneers Association Bid Calling Champions. Mike began his career in the real estate auction business in 2002 and believes that real estate auctions are the purest form of price realization. Learning real estate exclusively through the auction method is an advantage to potential clients and makes Mike one of the leading auction experts in California . Contact Mike at (661) 325-6500.

Professional Memberships

* On the Board of Directors for the California State Auctioneers Association (CSAA)
* Member of the National Auctioneers Association (NAA)
* Accredited Auctioneer of Real Estate (AARE) designated by the National Auctioneers Assocation
* Member of the Bakersfield Association of Realtors, Arcadia Association of Realtors, and the * MRMLS (A Multiple Listing Service for Southern California )
* Member of the National Association of Realtors (NAR)
* Member of the California Association of Realtors (CAR)

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Randy and Mike Griff of Elite Auctions #123

This week Bruce interviews Randy and Mike Grigg from Elite Auctions. Randy is the President of Elite Auctions for which Mike serves as Chief Auctioneer. Mike is also current president for the California Auctioneer Association.

Bruce begins by asking Randy how he got involved in real estate. In 1977, Randy had heard in seminars that real estate was the way to go, so he eased into it. He brought his first rental house in 1977, and after that he bought about 2 or 3 houses every year, for 20 years, and then stopped. Randy’s plan for real estate was to buy houses so that he could pay them off and enjoy the cash flow. This has worked well for Randy, and he currently has a few dozen houses that he is collecting cash from.

Bruce asks Randy when he started auctioning houses. Randy says that he started doing auctioning after he decided to stop doing real estate for a while. After getting involved, he decided that he did not like the selling process, because he had a few escrows that fell out. He drove past a house in his neighborhood one day, and he discovered that it was being auctioned. He decided to attend the auction in hopes that he might buy the property. He thought that he might be the only person at the auction, but he discovered that many people were interested in bidding at auctions. The house he wanted to buy went up to full market value, so he thought, “this might be a good way to sell.” This occurred in 2002.

Bruce asks Mike when he got involved in the auction business with his dad, and who the typical selling client was from 2002-06. He says that he got involved in 2002, and that he dealt with a lot of homeowners who were expecting to receive a high offer. In 2004-06 most sellers were astonished by the selling price of their homes. When Mike and Randy got involved in the business, they did it to help investors help sell 5 houses per day, but when other home owners discovered what Mike and Randy were doing many decided they wanted to auction their houses too.

Bruce asks Mike if he gets a lot of exposure from just holding an auction that is successful. Mike claims to receive a lot of attention from his auctions, because many times Mike will have 100 people show up for one house, and some of the participants have houses to sell as well.

Between 2004-06 the typical buyer was an own occupant. The typical buyer showing up now is often a long term investor, and first time home buyers are getting into the market now too. One of the recent changes that have been made to the $8,000 tax credit program is that first time buyers can use their 8,000 $dollar credit as a down payment up front.

The typical selling client that Randy works with right now is a rehabber, or a wholesaler, who understands that if they do not get their houses sold within two months then they will lose their opportunity to gain a profit. Prices went down a great deal.

Mike and Randy have an auction coming up on June 4, which will include houses that they have bought at REDC and Hudson Marshall. They have done minor fixes to them, and they are hoping to gain a profit. They have done 25 auctions within the last 8 months, and most of them are profitable.

Bruce asks Mike and Randy if they have ever had their competitors try to buy their houses, and then resell them for profit. They do not know if that has ever occurred, but they doubt that this has ever occurred, because they fix their houses more than other auction companies do.

Some auction companies host their events in a ballroom setting with a large amount of inventory, but Mike and Randy have taken a different route. Mike and Randy typically sell 3 or 4 houses per day, because they do their auctions at the property they are selling.

Mike and Randy’s advertising has done very well, but it has changed dramatically in the past seven years. They are doing much more internet advertising now. It is more expensive to send letters than to advertise on the internet. Mike believes that their may be a time when they no longer need print media. The newspaper does not work as well in bigger metropolitan areas.

Bruce asks Mike what source he receives his most qualified buyers from. Mike claims that the sign on the front of the property often attracts the most qualified buyers, because those buyers often own property on that same street. When you put the word auction on a sign, people pay much more attention.

Mike usually has two open houses during the week before the auction. Each open house is about 2 hours. The main reason why they have a limited time for viewing each house is to create sense of urgency. They are prepping their mind for the auction, because the house is going to be sold at a specific time and date. Bruce asks Mike if it is important that there are other people present when someone attends the open house. Mike thinks this is very important, because it gives them the idea that they are doing the right thing.

Bruce asks Mike what his main objective is when people call about an auction ad. Mike’s main objective for the initial conversation is to get them excited about the auction, and to get them to come to the open house, so that they can fall in love with the property. He also wants to assure potential buyers that buying from an auction is simpler than buying the normal way. The first call that Mike gets from a potential buyer is the most critical call, because it is easy to lose buyers when they first call for information. A first time participant may be looking for a reason not to attend the auction. Mike has hired a professional to handle most of his buyer calls.

Most people assume that an auction would be held on the weekend, but Mike and Randy are having their auction during the week. They hold auctions on everyday except for Sunday and Monday. They prefer not to hold auctions on Sundays because they do not want to get in the way of anyone’s religious traditions, and on Mondays people are busy preparing for the rest of the week. However, he has attended an auction on a Monday that was very successful. The time that they choose to hold their auctions does not seem to matter too much. There are times when more people will show up for a Wednesday auction than a Saturday auction.

Bruce asks Randy how many bidders are typically needed for a successful auction. Randy has had successful auctions with as little as 3 bidders. He often feels better when there are only about 5 to 10 people attending. There’s been up to 70. Bruce asks if there’s been any issues with appraisals. At one auction, the bank lowered the $10k. They stuck to their guns and the buyer ended making up the difference.

Bruce talks about The Norris Group’s current appraisal situation and how the verdict is still out.

Back to auctions, when Mike starts an auction he often begins by auctioning something small for charity. He does this because it helps new bidders to relax, and it encourages them to bid. It’s an ice breaker.

Bruce asks if people ever forget about the buyer’s premium. About half of the time, people forget about the buyer’s premium. This still occurs even though they disclose it in all the written terms, and it is disclosed before all the auctions they do. Even Mike has forgotten the buyer’s premium, because there are many times where people come to an auction not thinking about the buyer’s premium; they are thinking about winning the property they want to bid on.

Bruce asks if Mike can tell when buyers feel remorseful over their decision to buy. Mike can tell when people feel bad about their decision because they do not look excited. This is why Mike does his best to make people feel comfortable when they buy his properties. He does his best to answer his buyer’s questions.

Mike believes that receiving a healthy deposit for the closing of a property is of key importance. In this market, you cannot come out and tell people that they need $15,000 dollars for them to bid, because you will knock out all the first time home buyers. On a single family house in Bakersfield, Mike and Randy will often ask for a $5,000 dollar deposit, because it is enough to encourage people to close the deal. Mike and Randy close about 95 percent of their escrows during the first try.

Bruce asks Randy to describe the perfect seller to have as an auction client. Randy thinks that the perfect seller is someone who works with wholesale properties. Those kinds of people have reasonable price expectations, because they often buy at the right price to flip it, and they are willing to pay for the marketing cost with the expectation that Mike and Randy will make them a profit.

The number for Elite Auction is 661-325-6500, and their website is www.sellwithauction.com

Randy Grigg
President

Being involved with real estate transactions since 1977, Randy discovered the benefits of using the auction method of marketing real estate after completing a single-family house rehab project that had three failed escrows. Selling time went from 2 months to 7 months due to the buyers backing out because of financing and appraisal contingencies. These extra 5 months of holding costs dramatically reduced the net profit.

As a "control freak" (and knowing other people are too) we designed our company to cater to the desire of our clients to sell their properties quickly in "as-is" condition with no loan, appraisal or property contingencies... at the highest price the market will bear. By selling my own properties "absolute" (no reserve), we learned first hand how to get the right bidders to our auctions. After we continued tweaking our marketing program we finally felt comfortable selling for others. We also have developed a strategy for selling real estate for others where our clients have full control over the final selling price, again understanding many of our clients desire for complete control.


Mike Grigg
AARE - Auctioneer / Agent

Mike graduated from the prestigious "World Champion College of Auctioneers." He has participated in charity and real estate auctions and handles agent/broker relations. Mike serves as President for the California State Auctioneers Association (CSAA). He has been designated AARE, which means he is an Accredited Auctioneer of Real Estate appointed by the National Auctioneers Association.

Mike has called a variety of real estate auctions in California and knows what it takes to get the buyers to competitively bid and drive the prices up. He is one of the 2004 California State Auctioneers Association Bid Calling Champions. Mike began his career in the real estate auction business in 2002 and believes that real estate auctions are the purest form of price realization. Learning real estate exclusively through the auction method is an advantage to potential clients and makes Mike one of the leading auction experts in California . Contact Mike at (661) 325-6500.

Professional Memberships

* On the Board of Directors for the California State Auctioneers Association (CSAA)
* Member of the National Auctioneers Association (NAA)
* Accredited Auctioneer of Real Estate (AARE) designated by the National Auctioneers Assocation
* Member of the Bakersfield Association of Realtors, Arcadia Association of Realtors, and the * MRMLS (A Multiple Listing Service for Southern California )
* Member of the National Association of Realtors (NAR)
* Member of the California Association of Realtors (CAR)

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Nicholas Manfredi of the Short Sale Processor #59

Bruce Norris is joined once again by president of the Short Sales Processor, Nicholas Manfredi. Bruce and Nick talk about what attracted Nick to the world of California real estate investing, his background in data, if sales was important to being an investor, how the Inland Empire Investor’s Forum began, how his Southern California investor club has helped his business and skill set, what choices people have when facing foreclosure, what mistakes California investors are making when approaching people in foreclosure, how different short sale businesses are structuring their business, the ideal time frame to complete the short sale process and have the lender participate, where lenders are currently participating in the foreclosure process, the credit difference between foreclosure and a short sale, what someone facing foreclosure wants to hear when doing a short sale, lenders and their focus on BPOs, building relationships with loss mitigation departments, turnover in the loss mitigation industry, the BPO process, the amount of time per California short sale file, synergy with short sales and REO brokers, Nick’s upcoming short sale seminar, the structure of a successful California short sale business, doing what you’re good at, learning to set up a machine to do the most profitable things, percentage of response for short sale marketing, why education is always less expensive then learning the hard way, how long the short sale business in California will likely last, price adjustments in California, and his website theshortsaleprocessor.com.

Nick Manfredi is a real estate investor, speaker and corporate business owner. He has been featured in Fortune Magazine and The LA Times, and contributed to articles in the news media including CNN Money Magazine, The Press Enterprise, and RISmedia.

In 2002 Nick established one of Southern California’s most respected real estate investment club’s The Inland Empire Investors Forum. Focused on volume, he continues to wholesale 80% of his acquisitions.

Eager to capitalize on California’s changing market Nick co-founded The Short Sale Processor LLC. As CEO of Forum Real Estate Investments Inc

Nick continues buy residential & commercial property in California and Texas. Nick resides in Southern California with his wife Susan and 3 boys Gabriel, Nathan and Jacob.

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Nicholas Manfredi of the Short Sale Processor #58

Bruce Norris is joined by short sales expert and President of the Short Sale Processor, Nicholas Manfredi. Bruce and Nick discuss how hard prices have been hit in the Inland Empire, different ways to evaluate homes, why Nick likes Corona as an investment area, what areas of the housing market are safe, inflation and interest rates and their effect on investment decisions, percentage of homes in Corona in a negative equity position, what conversations are like with current sellers, the journey of someone facing potential foreclosure and the option of a short sale, California and a possible depression, rent drops in the Inland Empire, the choices for someone in default, what some home owners have been spending per month on a home payment, the willingness for lenders to really help people to save their home, misconceptions on short sales, Realtors and the misunderstanding of taxation and debt relief, the Debt Relief Act of 2008, if you need to be licensed to do short sales, retail value and short sales, working with a Realtor who understands the process, reasons why lenders decline short sales, the MERS system, lenders position on borrower being behind before short sale consideration, how to attract people to short sales if not through mailers, how the Short Sale Processor works, the money to be made by helping sellers and lenders, how brokers can make just as much money with short sales as they can with a regular transaction, and finally, theshortsaleprocessor.com.

Nick Manfredi is a real estate investor, speaker and corporate business owner. He has been featured in Fortune Magazine and The LA Times, and contributed to articles in the news media including CNN Money Magazine, The Press Enterprise, and RISmedia.

In 2002 Nick established one of Southern California’s most respected real estate investment club’s The Inland Empire Investors Forum. Focused on volume, he continues to wholesale 80% of his acquisitions.

Eager to capitalize on California’s changing market Nick co-founded The Short Sale Processor LLC. As CEO of Forum Real Estate Investments Inc

Nick continues buy residential & commercial property in California and Texas. Nick resides in Southern California with his wife Susan and 3 boys Gabriel, Nathan and Jacob.

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Real Estate Economist Gary Watts #57

Bruce Norris and economist Gary Watts of Impact Real Estate continue their conversation from last week. This week they discuss when this current real estate downturn began, what statistic told us we were headed into a downturn, if Southern California is different from the rest of California, what percentage of the market was second home purchases, what has changed in the lending industry, the Federal Reserve and why they waited so long to do anything about the lending troubles, the new rules of being a lender, how certain minority groups stand to be hit hardest and how it happened, Bruce and Gary’s differing opinion on affordability, resets in 2008, lenders stalling on resets, if banks can truly be proactive and what choices they have in dealing with delinquent borrowers, due-on-sale clause, the media misleading the public on foreclosure rates, how the media’s lack of experience and understanding of the topics lead to bad reporting, press and its impact on real estate in an up market, consumers and attention paid to news articles, Orange County foreclosures, what cities are most affected, did builders overbuild in Orange County, how builders make mistakes, state-wide foreclosures and the never-before-seen sales ratio for Southern California, forecasting in 2008, why California wins migration, and how some areas in California are almost ready to cash flow.

Gary Watts has long been recognized as a forecasting expert by the real estate industry. His long-term analysis has also drawn the attention of the media due to his consistent accuracy. His Economic Outlook has been spotlighted in regional newspapers, including the Orange County Register and the Los Angeles Times. He has been seen on the PBS TV program Real Orange, he has been heard on the radio at KNX Money Talk and was featured in Fortune magazine. He holds a degree in economics with advanced studies in psychology from California State University at Sacramento. Gary's economic forecast and lecture notes are among the information pieces most widely circulated by real estate agents in Orange County. Gary's last speaking season drew over 17,000 real estate agents. His talks are also available in DVD and an English or Spanish CD format

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Real Estate Economist Gary Watts #56

Bruce Norris is joined this week by economist Gary Watts. Bruce and Gary discuss Gary’s long history of forecasting in California, what surprised him in 2007, how the financing industry put the breaks on the low and high end inventory in California, psychology playing a role in the California real estate market, how this cycle was different from previous cycles, renting versus buying in the mind of a buyer, how much of the loan pool is subprime, how much of the subprime is really a problem, collateralized debt and the mess it has created, FHA and VA loans, how the new loan limits for FHA will hopefully help, how the change might hurt the median price, pent-up demand in certain parts of California, who make up these new buyers, the FED and the solutions they’ve tried to implement, how freezing the subprime might help or hurt the market, foreign markets and lending practices, which foreign country buys the most real estate in the United States, foreigners betting on a short-term weak dollar and a good potential for a rebound, and how the election could effect real estate.

Gary Watts has long been recognized as a forecasting expert by the real estate industry. His long-term analysis has also drawn the attention of the media due to his consistent accuracy. His Economic Outlook has been spotlighted in regional newspapers, including the Orange County Register and the Los Angeles Times. He has been seen on the PBS TV program Real Orange, he has been heard on the radio at KNX Money Talk and was featured in Fortune magazine. He holds a degree in economics with advanced studies in psychology from California State University at Sacramento. Gary's economic forecast and lecture notes are among the information pieces most widely circulated by real estate agents in Orange County. Gary's last speaking season drew over 17,000 real estate agents. His talks are also available in DVD and an English or Spanish CD format

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John Burns of John Burns Real Estate Consulting #55

Bruce Norris is joined this week by builder consultant and founder of John Burns Real Estate Consulting, John Burns. Bruce and John discuss how busy John has been consulting investors and builders who have never experienced a downturn, what industries these new investors are coming from and if it’s cyclical, if builders had a chance to do it over what they might choose to do differently, land shortages, debt strategies of builders, options versus cash, land value decrease in California, portfolio deals, supply of homes the builders are currently holding, construction starts, how lending has changed the game, who the typical buyer is in 2008, the possibility of builders constructing smaller homes, if the cities like that idea, why do builders repeat the same mistakes, are those in trouble the old or new companies, Northern versus Southern California market, affordability changes in the coming years, if affordability will help the housing market, if any of the FED actions will come to the rescue, how the freezing of foreclosure won’t change anything, how interest rates might help, the California employment picture for 2008 and its effect on housing demand, recession in California, migration, presidential elections and possible tax law changes, the state of the commercial industry, commercial foreclosures in 2008, and the new loan limits proposed by the FED.

Prior to founding the Company, John Burns was at KPMG Peat Marwick for 10 years, where he was a Senior Manager in the Real Estate Consulting group. He was also a Principal and Vice President for four years at a national consulting firm, where he completed custom consulting assignments and developed several market monitoring subscription products for the 75 largest housing markets in the United States.

John Burns is a frequent speaker, and has been quoted as an expert by CNN, ABC World News Tonight, The Wall Street Journal, The Associated Press, USA Today, Bloomberg, The Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, Builder magazine, and others. He designed and authored a weekly e-mail received by more than 25,000 industry participants, and authored the U.S. Housing Markets publication. He also created and edited several highly successful market research subscription reports.

John has a M.B.A. from the University of California, Los Angeles and a B.A. in economics from Stanford University. He is also a Certified Public Accountant. He is a full member of the Urban Land Institute and a board member of the Building Industry Association.

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Mark Kiesel of PIMCO #54

This week Bruce Norris is joined by Executive Vice President of PIMCO, Mark Kiesel. PIMCO is one of the largest specialty fixed income managers in the world, with $746.3 billion in assets under management and more than 900 employees in offices globally. Bruce and Mark talk about the strategies of PIMCO going forward into 2008, how PIMCO is more defensive on certain products in 2008, bonds compared to stocks, why bonds instead of stocks, muni bonds, what happens when cities go bankrupt, corporate bonds markets in 2007 and its growth, how bonds fair in recessions, PIMCO’s position on mortgages and housing, PIMCO’s position on housing price drops, AAA ratings and subprime, credit cycles compared to the economy, emerging market stocks, good areas for investment, what happens when ratings are lowered from AAA, how lenders will have to adjust, three major obstacles that could end our positive business cycle, the root of real estate price declines, housing inventory nation wide, rate resets in 2008-2009, increases in real estate vacancy, the shell-shocked consumer, corporate profits in 2008, hiring and unemployment, how it won’t be as bad as 2000-2001, and whether consumers have real wealth or just more stuff.

Mr. Kiesel is an Executive Vice President, generalist portfolio manager, and a senior member of PIMCO's investment strategy and portfolio management group. He also heads the investment-grade corporate desk and manages corporate portfolios for the firm. Previously, Mr. Kiesel served as PIMCO's head of equity derivatives and as a senior credit analyst. Mr. Kiesel joined PIMCO in 1996, previously having been associated with the sales and trading divisions of Merrill Lynch and JP Morgan. He has twelve years of investment experience and holds a bachelor's degree in economics from the University of Michigan and an MBA in finance, economics and international business from the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business.

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Leslie Appleton-Young of CAR #53

This week Bruce Norris is joined once again by Chief Economist for The California Association of Realtors, Leslie Appleton-Young. Bruce and Leslie discuss how lenders are exiting existing properties differently this cycle, feedback from frustrated REO agents, a due on sale moratorium, why adjustments in the lending industry has to change, short sales and how lenders aren’t cooperating, how lender cooperation might change in 2008, Realtors and auctions in 2008, the California budget deficit and its effect on real estate, possible changes with Proposition 13, if California is losing migration, the California rental market, contraction in employment in the real estate industry, how buyers are cautious, the demanding buyer, home ownership as an investment, the willingness for buyers to jump in 2008, how 25%-50% of markets were investors in some markets in recent history, 2007 versus 2008 and how transactions will bottom, C.A.R. predicting further declines in transactions, mortgage resets in 2008, how 2009 will be a better year, and possible solutions and their unintended consequences.

Leslie Appleton-Young is Vice President and Chief Economist for the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.), a statewide trade organization with over 195,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate.

Mrs. Appleton-Young directs the activities of the Association's Member Information Group. She oversees the analysis of housing market and brokerage industry trends, member communications, and membership development activities. She is also closely involved in the Association's strategic planning efforts and is a well-known speaker in California’s real estate community.

Before joining C.A.R. in 1984, Leslie Appleton-Young was a consultant with Telesis Inc. in Rhode Island. She also spent several years working as a research associate at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and as an instructor at the University of Pennsylvania.

Mrs. Appleton-Young earned a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics from the University of California, Berkeley, and her Masters from the University of Pennsylvania.

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Leslie Appleton-Young of CAR #52

This week Bruce Norris is joined by Chief Economist for The California Association of Realtors, Leslie Appleton-Young. Bruce and Leslie discuss how people join C.A.R, how the market has changed and things unexpected in the market, jumbo market problems, how Realtors audiences have changed as far as what they are looking for from C.A.R., how Realtors are seeking strategies and how to deal with unrealistic sellers, total membership during the boom, the wait-and-see attitude on membership numbers but how so far they are stronger than expected, what successful agents did to make 2007 work, how to profit in 2008, California short sales and California REOs, how the California commercial real estate market is fairing, how finding a niche is important, the First Time Buyer Fair and a partnership with the Los Angeles Times, who becomes the dominate buyers in a down market, how median home prices only recently went down, the Case Schiller index, how to truly figure out market value, why it’s important not to follow the market down and price correctly off the bat, California REO sales vs. expected California retail sales in 2008, reason why lenders haven’t adjusted HELOCs, variability by market and how the Inland Empire has more inventory, and why C.A.R. will stick with their newer First-Time Buyer Affordability Index.

Leslie Appleton-Young is Vice President and Chief Economist for the California Association of REALTORS® (C.A.R.), a statewide trade organization with over 195,000 members dedicated to the advancement of professionalism in real estate.

Mrs. Appleton-Young directs the activities of the Association's Member Information Group. She oversees the analysis of housing market and brokerage industry trends, member communications, and membership development activities. She is also closely involved in the Association's strategic planning efforts and is a well-known speaker in California’s real estate community.

Before joining C.A.R. in 1984, Leslie Appleton-Young was a consultant with Telesis Inc. in Rhode Island. She also spent several years working as a research associate at the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and as an instructor at the University of Pennsylvania.

Mrs. Appleton-Young earned a Bachelor of Arts degree in economics from the University of California, Berkeley, and her Masters from the University of Pennsylvania.

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Mark Dotzour of Texas A & M #51

Bruce Norris is joined once again by Chief Economist and Director of Research for the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, Dr. Mark Dotzour. Bruce and Dr. Dotzour discuss commercial real estate, how commercial real estate will see similar financial problems, how the decline in the U.S. dollar makes real estate to foreigners look cheap, CAP rates and the future of commercial real estate, how CAP rates work, how Texas compares to California in price and market cycles, Texas and price inflation in the coming years, migration to Texas, how Texas is the number one exporting state in the country, unintended consequences of government solutions for the lending industry, Greenspan’s take on fixing the economy, how Bernanke compares to Greenspan, how Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will come into play in the coming years, and possible tax law changes.

Dr. Mark G. Dotzour is the Chief Economist and Director of Research for the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University in College Station, Texas. He earned his Ph.D. in the Department of Finance at the University of Texas at Austin in 1987 and served as Associate Professor of Real Estate and Finance at Wichita State University for 10 years. As Chief Economist, he is currently doing market research to monitor how global and national trends are likely to impact residential and commercial real estate markets.

Prior to his academic career, he was president of Gleneagles Development, Inc., developing residential subdivisions in Wichita, Kansas. He also served as president of Dotzour Inc., Realtors, which was a residential brokerage firm in Wichita.

He has been at the Real Estate Center since August, 1997. Since then, he has published 59 articles in magazines and given over 700 presentations to more than 90,000 people. His research findings and comments have been published in the Wall Street Journal , Money Magazine, USA Today and Business Week. He was a recent guest on the Jim Lehrer Newshour on PBS.

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Mark Dotzour of Texas A & M #50

This week, Bruce Norris is joined by Chief Economist and Director of Research for the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University, Dr. Mark Dotzour. Bruce and Dr. Dotzour discuss how global trends have affected residential real estate, how interest rates are determined, how central banks have lost some control over monetary policy, how the lending industry is changing, how lenders found out the ultimate way to protect themselves from risk, bond agencies missing that risk, how the U.S. has exported some toxic paper and why it worked, the ramification of downgraded ratings, the credit crunch, how the U.S. just started seeing the damage from the mortgage market, how March will bring more realistic news, foreign investors, China and credit securities, real estate boom in foreign markets, what our interest rate should really by in the current market, how the U.S. would see higher interest rates, inflation in the U.S., recession and effects on Asia, stagflation and comparison to past cycles, why real estate is in demand as an asset, and Texas prices.

Dr. Mark G. Dotzour is the Chief Economist and Director of Research for the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University in College Station, Texas. He earned his Ph.D. in the Department of Finance at the University of Texas at Austin in 1987 and served as Associate Professor of Real Estate and Finance at Wichita State University for 10 years. As Chief Economist, he is currently doing market research to monitor how global and national trends are likely to impact residential and commercial real estate markets.

Prior to his academic career, he was president of Gleneagles Development, Inc., developing residential subdivisions in Wichita, Kansas. He also served as president of Dotzour Inc., Realtors, which was a residential brokerage firm in Wichita.

He has been at the Real Estate Center since August, 1997. Since then, he has published 59 articles in magazines and given over 700 presentations to more than 90,000 people. His research findings and comments have been published in the Wall Street Journal , Money Magazine, USA Today and Business Week. He was a recent guest on the Jim Lehrer Newshour on PBS.

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The Norris Group Team Show #49

Bruce is joined once again by the experts at TNG: Craig Hill the hard money loan officer, Andrea Jennings the agent, and Greg Norris the property buyer. Bruce and Craig discuss what Craig needs to see for those looking for a hard money letter, what mistakes he's seeing in the market, how investors are buying, what risks not to make in a down market, and bulk buys. Greg and Bruce discuss the use of comps, pricing in a down market, how quickly prices are descending, how to figure out what a property is worth, how quick he’s gotten at repairs, how often auctions are spitting out deals, performance by auction companies, deficiencies he stays away from when looking at properties and the change in auction attendance. Andrea discusses selling what TNG buys, why price and condition are important, buyers in the current market, why there is lots of hand holding, and how picky they are about repairs.

The Norris Group officially started in 1997 when Craig Hill joined The Norris Group to open up the hard money loan division. Since inception, The Norris Group has added several team members including full-time Realtor Andrea Jennings and full-time property buyer Greg Norris. Together The Norris Group team has almost a century of combined experience.

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The Norris Group Team #48

To wrap up 2007, Bruce Norris takes some time to interview TNG team members Craig Hill (hard money loan officer at The Norris Group), Andrea Jennings (Realtor), and Greg Norris (Property Buyer). Together the four talks about what they've seen in 2007 and how quickly the market has shifted. Craig talks about how long he’s been in the business and how he came to work at TNG, what he’s hearing every day from investors calling in, why access to cash is important in this California real estate market, misconceptions in the marketplace, investors sitting on the sidelines in 2007 and 2008, the transition of deals, and recent auctions. Greg and Bruce discuss his background and what he brings to the table at TNG, recent real estate auctions, important skills to have, trustee sales, how he preps for a trustee sale, how title companies have made mistakes, target inventory, and how many home owners have equity. Andrea talks with Bruce about prices dropping, buyer babysitting, banks and appraisals, BPOs, repairs, REOS then and now, inventory numbers, change in agents’ attitudes, and misconceptions between investors and agents. They also warn of investors trying to play catch up 2008 and tie breakers.

The Norris Group officially started in 1997 when Craig Hill joined The Norris Group to open up the hard money loan division. Since inception, The Norris Group has added several team members including full-time Realtor Andrea Jennings and full-time property buyer Greg Norris. Together The Norris Group team has almost a century of combined experience.

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