Christopher Thornberg of Beacon Economics #74

Bruce Norris is joined by Principle at Beacon Economics and panelist for I Survived Real Estate 2008, Christopher Thornberg. Bruce and Christopher discuss how Christopher got started in the prediction business, letting the data speak to you and street smarts, how this journey caught so many off guard, the duration of bubbles, how the downturn is worse then expected, looking at past real estate bubbles and how they compare, the chance that people who can afford home payments walk away because their neighbor owes half what they do, looking at what caused most of the damage, subprime being the fuel for the fire, the main problem being people paid too much, how falling prices will eventually allow people to get back in the market, home prices and consumer spending, unemployment and what that can mean for migration, when it might turn, if downturns hit coastal regions, the price decline and how it works its way out to coastal regions, returning to more reasonable ownership levels, following the foreclosure lists and realizing that investors weren’t the problem, how lenders are tightening financing, how Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are exposed in volatile markets, the large amount of leverage within banks, equity position of banks, the story behind pent up demand, commercial real estate in the coming years, the land price bubble, false wealth and consumer spending, how to notice a commercial bubble is popping, the Federal Reserve and how they’re dealing with the market, dealing with inflation compared to past cycles, and what policy Christopher would change in the current market.

Christopher Thornberg is a founding partner of Beacon Economics. Dr. Thornberg is an expert in the study of regional economies, real estate dynamics, labor markets and business forecasting. He has been involved in a number of special studies measuring the impact of important events on the economy, including the NAFTA treaty, the California power crisis, port security, California water transfer programs and the September 11th terrorist attacks. Prior to launching Beacon he worked with the UCLA Anderson Forecast where he regularly authored the outlooks for California, Los Angeles and the East Bay as well as performing a number of specialized forecasts for regions and industries. Dr. Thornberg lectures on a regular basis at a variety of public and private events, has appeared on CNN, Fox News and CNBC and is widely quoted in the press. He received his Ph.D in Business Economics from The Anderson School and his B.S. in Business Administration from the State University of New York at Buffalo. He specializes in International and Labor Economics. Dr. Thornberg continues to teach in the MBA program at UCLA and previously held a faculty position in the economics department at Clemson University.

Christopher Thornberg will join our panel of experts on August 23, 2008 at the fundraiser, "I Survived Real Estate 2008." Proceeds will go to the Orange County Affiliate of the Susan G. Komen for the Cure. See iSurvived2008.com for more information.

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Marsha Norris #73

Bruce Norris launches this week a very special event for a very special cause. On August 23rd, 2008, The Norris Group along with support from generous partners and panelists will host an event entitled, “I Survived Real Estate 2008.”

Proceeds from the event will benefit the Orange County Affiliate of the Susan G. Komen for the Cure. The event seeks to bring together the real estate community including Realtors, auctioneers, investors, mortgage professionals, economists, service providers, and builders to discuss how we got here, how the respective industries are changing, and how we move forward and prosper together in 2008 and 2009. This is about solutions and synergy, not bad news.

The TNG radio interviews for the next several weeks leading to the event will seek to introduce the audience to the panelists that are participating in the live event. Many have been guests on the radio show before and we appreciate their willingness to help us with such a worthy cause.

The week, Bruce Norris is joined by wife of 38 years, Marsha Norris. Marsha is a cancer survivor and has been fighting for 13 years. Her cancer battle started with breast cancer and she is now fighting bone cancer. Marsha and Bruce discuss how they found out, the initial reaction to finding out, the journey they've taken trying to find a doctor who would listen, protocols, the important of self education when it comes to illness, surrounding yourself with people who believe you'll survive, how the real estate community has been a HUGE support system, spirituality and getting through the tough times, believing in a cure, pursing health versus buying time, the Susan G. Komen website and the resources that help, treatments she's tried along the way, and how believing in your treatment is important.

Marsha Norris has four children, seven grandchildren, and has been married to Bruce Norris for 38 years. Marsha is a trained massage therapist and loves reading on holistic medicine, different massage techniques, and numerous other topics. She enjoys traveling and looks forward to seeing Egypt for the first time this coming Fall.

Official site launch of www.ISurvived2008.com and tickets for the live event will launch early July. Thank you for your patience and we’ll keep you posted on the radio show and TNG website. There will be numerous ways for you to get involved so we look forward to sharing them with you soon.

Special thanks to the following partners who are helping make this event possible: the San Diego Creative Investment Association and Bill Tan (sdcia.com), the Investors Workshop in Orange County and Shawn Watkins (investorsworkshops.com), Frye Wiles, the results-oriented web design, Internet marketing, branding and creative design firm helping us with the web (fryewiles.com), MVT Productions who always does an amazing job with our audio/visual needs (mvtproductions.tv), Proxibid who has graciously offered to air this event nationwide live via the Internet (Proxibid.com), White House Catering (whcatering.com), and finally, the Nixon Library for allowing us to use their wonderful White House Replica of the East Room to hold the live, black tie event (nixonlibraryfoundation.org).

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Nancy West of HUD #72

Bruce Norris is joined once again by marketing and outreach specialist for U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, Nancy West. Bruce and Nancy discuss home owner month and the outreach FHA is involved in for the event and throughout the year, foreclosure prevention workshops, who the buyer is now entering the market, FHA rehabilitation loans to consumers willing to rehab homes, rehabilitation loan program 230k, streamline rehabilitation loans, how no special inspection is necessary if under $15,000 in repairs, which loan is appropriate depending on the amount of work needed, how the consumer can receive up to 110% of after approved value, the way the Realtor would structure the transaction if these loans are used, if an investor can take over an FHA loan, how FHA was replaced by other loan products, the seasoning period for FHA loans and why it exists, tweaks to the property flipping rule in 2003, if FHA loans are assumable between two owner occupants, the 1980s and the simple assumption and the elimination of the program in 1989, why the program was eliminated, if HUD was satisfied working with investors in the last cycle, why the last downturn was different and why we could be hurt because the financing can’t move forward, if bankruptcy prevents consumers from getting an FHA loans, how FHA requires at least two years to laps but less time granted if consumer had extenuating circumstances, how the consumer typically waits two years for bankruptcy and three years for foreclosure to receive an FHA loan, talk of FHA buying defaulted loans by Barney Frank with the Banking Committee, how it will take an act of Congress and Senate and President approval, daily proposals trying to create solutions, how FHA is not really talking about these solutions until something looks real, if an election year will matter, other states that are still appreciating, the states with the most problems, how states and local areas differ, how FHA focuses on the positive things when dealing with consumers, rent approximating rent for first time in some areas, how the interest rate might become more important than the price, how the consumer needs to be educated, if FHA will be hiring, and FHA.gov.

Nancy West has been in mortgage lending industry since 1977, and has worked in a variety of positions within the industry from branch manager, small business owner, account executive, and mortgage loan underwriter. Nancy underwrote mortgage loans for major U.S. lenders; both government insured and non-government backed. Nancy holds two degrees; Real Estate, and in Education. Nancy is also a licensed California Real Estate Broker.

Nancy joined the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development in 2004 in the Processing and Underwriting Division. In 2006, Nancy accepted one of four nationwide Marketing and Outreach Specialist’s Positions for the Department. Nancy currently works out of the Santa Ana Homeownership Center, which services the eight western United States. Nancy travels throughout the Santa Ana Homeownership Center’s jurisdiction, providing presentations and information on FHA and FHA programs to consumer groups, industry partners, external agencies, as well as providing internal staff with up-to-date information on industry changes and practices.

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Nancy West of HUD #71

Bruce Norris is joined by marketing and outreach specialist for HUD, Nancy West. Bruce and Nancy discuss when HUD was created, the FHA program and its primary goals, how home ownership levels and foreclosure levels are related, hud.gov compared to fha.gov, the FHA Secure program that allows borrows who have fallen delinquent to come into an FHA program if the delinquency was caused by reset, what happens if the consumer owes more than the house is worth, when FHA secure is due to expire, the three option for delinquent consumers, renegotiations and modifications, loan forgiveness, how well the program is going, where money comes from when an FHA loan is funded, loan correspondents when working with FHA, how FHA differs from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, how FHA differs from PMI, the enacted Stimulus Act, FHA and manual underwriting, how FHA views a consumer’s willingness to pay obligations, FHA as a more common sense approach to lending, FHA requirements and standards for property, the process to become an approved FHA appraiser, gift programs for down payment allowable for FHA, single family for FHA includes up to four units and manufactured loans, loan limits in FHA, how often loan amounts are revisited, current loan limits and the Stimulus Act, how limits will go back to original limits on December 31, 2008, loan limits set by Congress, Section 8 rental program, foreclosing on FHA loans and when FHA steps in to protect a lender’s loss, if there’s a situation when the lender would be forced to take a loss, if fraud has been a problem with FHA, where the money come from when a claim is made, if FHA is expecting a huge number of foreclosures, the issue of the consumer being a victim in the mortgage mess, how long the FHA Secure process takes, loans available through FHA including fixed rate, adjustable, energy efficient, rehabilitation program (203K), and the streamlined rehabilitation program, why the 203K loan is not available to investors, why the program was available to investors in the 90s, how can investors get involved to get that reversed, do most buyers obtain fixed rate loans, and fha.gov.

Nancy West has been in mortgage lending industry since 1977, and has worked in a variety of positions within the industry from branch manager, small business owner, account executive, and mortgage loan underwriter. Nancy underwrote mortgage loans for major U.S. lenders; both government insured and non-government backed. Nancy holds two degrees; Real Estate, and in Education. Nancy is also a licensed California Real Estate Broker.

Nancy joined the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development in 2004 in the Processing and Underwriting Division. In 2006, Nancy accepted one of four nationwide Marketing and Outreach Specialist’s Positions for the Department. Nancy currently works out of the Santa Ana Homeownership Center, which services the eight western United States. Nancy travels throughout the Santa Ana Homeownership Center’s jurisdiction, providing presentations and information on FHA and FHA programs to consumer groups, industry partners, external agencies, as well as providing internal staff with up-to-date information on industry changes and practices.

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